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Trading events
Trading events 5
NFP, CPI and PCE, holidays, month-end flows and elections: how scheduled events move the auction.
2022Trading non-farm payrollsNFP can trigger a rapid repricing of economic expectations and a temporary withdrawal of liquidity. What the release is, how I prepare with a reaction function table, the2022CPI and PCE: two measures of inflation, and how to trade themCPI is the inflation number everyone knows; PCE is the one the Fed actually uses. How they differ, why a hotter or softer print moves rates, the dollar and stocks, and th2022Trading the holiday effectHolidays drain liquidity, and a thin market can travel a long way from value before snapping back. What the holiday effect is, how it changes the auction, a back-test of 2022Delta, gamma and month-end flowsMy two-minute explanation of the two cyclical flows that move equity markets, option hedging into expiry and month-end rebalancing, with a diagram of how they shape a dow2024US election outcomes: strategy thoughtsElections move markets through the journey as well as the result. How the uncertainty feeds volatility, how I'd think about bonds, the yuan, crypto, energy, equities and