Debriefing Fri 23rd August 2024  Jackson Hole

Debriefing Fri 23rd August 2024 Jackson Hole

August 24, 2024 0 By The Balanced Trader

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Fridays’ Data

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Friday’s Profile review AND Pre-market plan

The overnight auction failed to progress lower, finding a bid into the close and continuing higher. Typically, this is not a strong signal for a continuation lower following yesterday’s engulfing day. So, let’s explore what bears need to protect to keep momentum on their side and what they need to achieve to send bulls scampering. Of course, these are just my opinions and loosely held, but it pays to have an idea.

Let’s begin with where we left off: yesterday’s lows at 5882, trading into the June monthly highs of 5885 and 5578. This is obvious for some, but less obviously, we are trading into a prior week and composite low volume node (LVN). For bears to take control, I would want us to trade below last week’s cash close. Psychologically, that’s a big step if bears can take and hold it.

So, let’s look at this week’s profile. It’s very balanced, with a high at 5665 and a low at 5573 set in Monday’s session that has held. The weekly mid is 5619, which coincides with yesterday’s mid of 5624. It’s important to reflect on the symmetry of the profile and the obvious balance, with an equal tail at the high and lows of about 5 points.

Now we can see we are in balance. What about volume? Despite large moves higher and lower, Thursday’s volumes have remained relatively low, not exceeding 65% of daily relative volume (RVOL). Daily volume was under 900k, with the exception of Thursday’s liquidation, which saw about 1.1M trades. This signifies a short-term adjustment to the 12-session higher since we traded at 5120 on August 5th. A market sometimes needs to “break before it can go higher” and inventory gets too long.

So, all the evidence is that the market is in balance above a key level, with the overnight holding below the weekly mid into what will be an exciting session at Jackson Hole.

Buyers need to regain a hold above weekly/daily MID 5620/25 and sellers need to break below last weeks CS and Mondays lows 5573/5578 . 

If sellers can hold inside yesterdays lower profile with 34 singles marking the upper boundary I think we can wipe all the buyside out for a move into Junes range through 5778. That’s one thing I m looking for. Second A hold above pMVAH 5634 sets us up to have another go at higher . Yesterdays Value all the way at 5600 any PB into that area may find a bid as yesterdays shorts have an opportunity to cover.

A look at the pre market Profiles

Jackson Hole PA review

What did Powell say? AI Generated

In his speech at Jackson Hole yesterday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted several key points:

  1. Inflation Progress: Powell noted significant progress in reducing inflation, which has fallen from a peak of 9.1% in mid-2022 to 2.9% last month. He expressed confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path back to the Fed’s 2% target12.
  2. Interest Rate Cuts: Powell signaled that interest rate cuts are likely on the horizon, depending on incoming economic data and the evolving outlook. He emphasized that the timing and pace of these cuts will be carefully considered2.
  3. Economic Outlook: He discussed the current economic situation, noting that the labor market is no longer overheated and supply constraints have normalized. Powell believes the economy can achieve 2% inflation while maintaining a strong labor market1.
  4. Lessons Learned: Powell acknowledged that the Fed initially misjudged the inflationary threat in early 2021, expecting it to be transitory. He highlighted the importance of learning from these experiences to better manage future economic challenges2.

Overall, Powell’s speech conveyed optimism about the Fed’s progress in controlling inflation and hinted at potential rate cuts in the near future.

Profile finished balanced in a balanced week as aggressive buy and sell activity from prior RTH session POC and Tail Highs contains activity following the much anticipated Jackson Hole event. Nice tapering by sellers from the high and lows.

A detailed look at the PA. Notice how early RVOL dies down into the close and chances of a breakout diminish. Strong close as single IB beak lower failed to yield a close below the IB Mid as buyers continued trend into close. Bonds also Closed near upper levels.

Opening Bell

0830CT See Convergent feed

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LIVE Journal

https://chat.convergenttrading.com/group/1_Maven_Markets?msg=Qo6trDsskgkenZtFF

A look at the PA at the lows, footprints break down what you see from within the candle.

Notable tweets

Quote Of the Day

“A man cannot be convinced against his own convictions, but he can be talked into a state of uncertainty and indecision, which is even worse, for that means that he cannot trade with confidence and comfort.”
― Jesse Livermore,

Trade Well And Prosper.

BT