Mon 9th Nov 2026 – Trend day up: overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 7600
Trend day up: the overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 7600
The move that began at Sunday’s gap-open low did not stop at the open. It added 101.50 points from the overnight low into the open, another 99.25 by 10:55, and closed near the highs. Sellers held 7600, last week’s VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More, and left a flat top above a big buying tail. The weekly auction is still one-time-framing lower, and CPI is at 08:30 Tuesday.
HOD 7600.50 | LOD 7455.75 | VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 7571.00 | MID 7528 | VWAPThe VWAP or Volume-Weighted-Average-Price is a moving averag... More 7555.50 | VAH 7594.50 | VAL 7537.75 | CLOSE 7572.25
Monitoring flat top 7597–7603 · the 35s shelf 7534–7542 · CPI extremes
The session
OvernightSunday’s true gapAn open where the price is above or below the previous day's... More lower onOvernight Session More the Nvidia news lasted a minute. Globex reopened at 7371.00, below Friday’s RTHRegular trading hours. The official opening and closing time... More low (7392.00) and 31 points under Friday’s Globex close. The look below last week’s RTHRegular trading hours. The official opening and closing time... More low (7377.25) to 7363.75 failed at once, and short covering carried the overnight back into Friday’s range. Two attempts lower failed, one capped at Friday’s VAH (7451.75) and one held at Friday’s low (7392.00). Then buyers took out Friday’s high at 07:45. The overnight high was 7476.50.
A gap More lower that fails inside a minute tells shorts the news is already in the price. Coming off Thursday’s 335-point liquidation, covering became the path of least resistance.
The open7465.25: inside Friday’s range and above its value. That is a settlement gap More, 64.75 points over Friday’s 7400.50 close, not a true gapAn open where the price is above or below the previous day's... More. A 9.50-point test held above Friday’s VAH, and the drive started.
ContinuationThe open extended the overnight move instead of pausing it. The A period ran 70 points and left single printsSingle Prints (singles) are identical to excess but occur wi... More from 7455.75 to 7519.00, the day’s buying tail. B and C carried onOvernight Session More to 7564.50 by 10:55. That was 99.25 points off the open and 200.75 off the overnight low, and it stopped right onOvernight Session More last week’s VWAPThe VWAP or Volume-Weighted-Average-Price is a moving averag... More (7563.97).
There was no pullback of note for 90 minutes: A, B and C each made a new high. That is forced buying, with shorts paying up rather than buyers choosing their price.
RotationShort-term profit taking rotated price down into the 35s: 7537.75 at 11:35. Four references sit there: the bottom of Thursday’s B-period singles (7539.00), last week’s mid (7534.25), and the flat 30-minute SMA 200 and the rising SMA 20 (both about 7542). Buyers held it. From 12:00 to 14:30 the auction built value inside Thursday’s singles, 7553.50–7580.00, onOvernight Session More fading volume, repairing them.
This was the test that mattered. A short-covering rally that hands back its gains fails at the first shelf. This one held, built value higher and repaired Thursday’s singles: the market accepted the higher prices.
Push to the highsAt 14:35, as Al Arabiya reported (citing sources) that a preliminary US–Iran deal was likely, the day’s most aggressive 5-minute bar broke the rotation higher onOvernight Session More 366% RVOL. The push stopped at 7600: 7598.00 at 14:40, 7600.50 at 15:15, and 7597.75 again in M. Last week’s VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More (7597.00) and the bottom of Thursday’s A-period tail (7603.00) sit right there. Sellers were resilient at 7600, and the top is flat.
Sellers who missed Thursday’s liquidation used 7600 to sell again. They held it in three periods but never pushed price away, and a flat top like that says the auction up there is not finished.
The closeA little profit taking in M took price to 7571.00, and the close of 7572.25 came at 80% of the range, inside value and onOvernight Session More the POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More.
Day typeTrend day up. It opened at the low (7% of the range) and closed near the high (80%), with range extension in C, K and L. The profile is P-shaped: a big buying tail at the bottom, a fat upper distribution and a flat top where sellers held 7600. A flat top has no excess, so the high is unfinished business.
A trend day out of a liquidation, built onOvernight Session More a long single-print tail, is short covering in a hurry. Its fuel is shorts buying back. The next session shows whether new buyers take over above the flat top, or the market rotates back toward the tail.
Timeline
- Sun 18:00: true-gap reopen at 7371.00, below Friday’s RTHRegular trading hours. The official opening and closing time... More low. The low, 7363.75, came in the opening minutes, under last week’s RTHRegular trading hours. The official opening and closing time... More low; by 18:10 price was back at 7412.50. Look below and fail.
- 23:45: short covering fails at Friday’s VAH (7452.50).
- 02:45: second look below Friday’s low (7385.75). Buyers step in, 337% RVOL, close at 92% of the bar.
- 07:45–07:50: Friday’s high taken onOvernight Session More 306% RVOL; overnight high 7476.50; the next bar closes at its low (231%).
- 09:30: open 7465.25, low 7455.75 in the first five minutes, then the A-period drive.
- 10:55: the drive stops at last week’s VWAPThe VWAP or Volume-Weighted-Average-Price is a moving averag... More (7564.50 against 7563.97).
- 11:35: rotation low in the 35s (7537.75), at Thursday’s B-singles low.
- 14:35: Iran headlines; 366% RVOL to 7593.50, the day’s most aggressive bar.
- 15:15: high 7600.50, the flat top under last week’s VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More and Thursday’s A tail.
- 15:30–16:00: profit taking in M to the POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More (7571.00).
Who has control
Sellers have run the higher timeframe since mid-October. The weekly low has stepped down four weeks in a row (7676.00, 7648.50, 7558.25, 7322.25). Last week’s high and low were both below the week before’s: one-time-framing lower.
Inside that, control has changed hands onOvernight Session More the daily. Sellers took it onOvernight Session More 30 October with a true gapAn open where the price is above or below the previous day's... More lower and onOvernight Session More 2 November with a close near the low. Buyers grabbed it back onOvernight Session More 4 November with a true gapAn open where the price is above or below the previous day's... More higher. Thursday 5 November returned it to sellers decisively: a trend day down that opened at 99% of its range and closed at 1%, 335.25 points onOvernight Session More 2.89M contracts. That liquidation left an A-period tail (7603.00–7712.50) and B-period singles (7539.00–7580.25). Friday could not extend it: an inside day onOvernight Session More lighter volume with a weak close. OnOvernight Session More Monday buyers took the short term back, with a higher high and higher low than Friday, back inside Thursday’s range, and Thursday’s B singles repaired.
| Day | Structure | Control | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 30 Oct | True gapAn open where the price is above or below the previous day's... More lower | Sellers | Opened 7669.50, under Thursday’s 7725.25 low; 1.92M |
| Mon 2 Nov | Overlapping lower | Sellers | Close 7576.25, 5.50 points off the low |
| Tue 3 Nov | Inside day | Balance | 47.25-pt range onOvernight Session More 1.05M |
| Wed 4 Nov | True gapAn open where the price is above or below the previous day's... More higher | Buyers | Gap More 7623.75–7679.75; close 7721.75 |
| Thu 5 Nov | Trend day down | Sellers | 7707.50 open to 7381.25 close; 5.0x average range; gap More filled |
| Fri 6 Nov | Inside day | Balance | Sellers couldn’t extend; 1.33M; weak close 7400.50 |
| Mon 9 Nov | Trend day up | Buyers (short term) | Back inside Thursday’s range; buying tail; flat top at 7600 |
The timeframes conflict. The short term has turned up and the daily is back in balance, but the higher timeframe is still lower. Rallies inside a weekly downtrend are where longer-term sellers look to re-engage, so Tuesday’s response at the flat top matters more than Monday’s size.
Technicals and volume
Price closed above all three 30-minute averages: SMA 20 7539.62 (rising), SMA 50 7470.56 and SMA 200 7542.09 (flat). RSI 14 is 66.9, short of overbought. The SMA 20 and SMA 200 both sit onOvernight Session More the 35s shelf, and the 11:35 pullback held there.
Volume
Monday’s 1.45M RTHRegular trading hours. The official opening and closing time... More contracts were 0.94x the 10-day average and half of Thursday’s 2.89M liquidation. A 145-point trend day onOvernight Session More average volume fits short covering rather than new buying. The overnight was also average (0.95x). The heaviest periods were the open (A, 221k) and the close (M, 212k), and the close was a selling period.
Period by period
A7465.25 open, 7455.75 low, 7525.50 high. Open-test-drive; 70 points; singles 7455.75–7519.00.
BTo 7541.00; B singles 7525.75–7536.00. IBInitial balance in the futures is traditionally the first ho... More 7455.75–7541.00, 85.25 points.
CRange extension to 7564.50 at 10:55, onOvernight Session More last week’s VWAPThe VWAP or Volume-Weighted-Average-Price is a moving averag... More.
D–EProfit taking to 7539.75 and 7537.75; the 35s held.
F–JRotation 7553.50–7580.00 inside Thursday’s B singles; volume 68k to 49k a period.
KIran headlines; extension to 7598.00 onOvernight Session More 160k, three times J.
LHigh 7600.50 at 15:15; 2.25 points of singles; the flat top.
M212k; profit taking to 7571.00; close 7572.25 onOvernight Session More the POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More.
What Monday means for Tuesday
Three things from Monday’s auction carry into Tuesday.
1 · The flat top, 7597–7603Last week’s VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More, Monday’s high and Thursday’s A-tail low all sit here. A flat top is usually revisited. Acceptance above it starts the repair of Thursday’s A tail (7603.00–7712.50), and that is the buyers’ first job.
2 · The 35s shelf, 7534–7542This is where Monday’s only real pullback was bought. Sellers need it to break, because below it Monday’s single-print tail (7455.75–7536.00) offers little support down to Friday’s high, 7469.00.
3 · Monday’s value, 7537.75–7594.50This is balance, with the POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More at 7571.00. Tuesday’s overnight is holding inside it so far (7568.75–7586.50 by 21:50 ET).
CalendarFed’s Waller 04:00 ET. US CPI for October at 08:30 ET; consensus is +0.3% m/m and 3.9% y/y headline, +0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y core. The Treasury sells $42 billion of 10-year notes at 13:00 ET; the Fed’s Schmid speaks at 13:30, Logan at 14:35 and Bowman at 15:30. Overnight, China’s October exports rose 35.2% y/y and imports 41.6% (forecasts 33.5% and 32.0%), and Japan’s September household spending fell 6.8% y/y.
CPI ruleMark the extremes of the 08:30 move. If CPI drives a new overnight high or low, that extreme goes to the top of the watch list into the open.
Acceptance above the flat top, 7603.00. That opens Thursday’s A tail for repair, with last week’s VAH and high (7744.25, 7746.25) the next references. The weekly one-time-framing lower stays intact until a trade above 7746.25.
A break of the 35s shelf, 7534.25. Then Monday’s tail is the path of least resistance: 7519.00 (top of the A singles), then 7476.50 and 7469.00 (the overnight breakout).
Between the two, rotation inside Monday’s value around 7571.00 is the default while CPI is pending.
Key levels into Tuesday
| Price | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 7746.25 | Last week’s high | The weekly one-time-framing line |
| 7603.00 | Thu A-tail low | Bottom of the unrepaired opening tail (7603.00–7712.50) |
| 7600.50 / 7597.00 | Mon high / last week’s VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More | The flat top; sellers resilient at 7600 |
| 7594.50 | Mon VAH | Top of Monday’s value |
| 7571.00 | Mon POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More | The close sat onOvernight Session More it (7572.25) |
| 7563.97 | Last week’s VWAPThe VWAP or Volume-Weighted-Average-Price is a moving averag... More | Stopped the morning drive |
| 7555.50 | Mon VWAPThe VWAP or Volume-Weighted-Average-Price is a moving averag... More | Regular-hours VWAPThe VWAP or Volume-Weighted-Average-Price is a moving averag... More |
| 7542–7534.25 | The 35s shelf | 30-min SMA 200 and 20 · Thu B-singles low 7539.00 · Mon VAL 7537.75 · last week’s mid 7534.25 |
| 7536.00–7455.75 | Mon buying tail | A and B singles; thin, little to stop a move through |
| 7476.50 / 7469.00 | Mon ETH high / Fri high | The overnight breakout |
| 7455.75 | Mon low | The opening test |
| 7392.00 | Fri low | Held the overnight’s second look lower |
| 7363.75 | Mon ETH low | Gap-open look below and fail |
| 7322.25 | Last week’s low | Friday’s unconfirmed overnight low |
Economic calendar
Tuesday 10 November, New York time (ET); medium and high impact. Rows marked Mon are Monday-evening releases in Asia and the UK (Tuesday local time).
| Time | Ctry | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 18:30 | JP | Household spending, year over year (September) | -3.1% | -3.1% | -6.8% | |
| Mon 18:30 | JP | Household spending, month over month, seasonally adjusted (September) | +0.3% | +0.1% | -2.8% | |
| Mon 18:50 | JP | Current account (September) | ¥3,354.4 billion | ¥4,062.0 billion | – | |
| Mon 18:50 | JP | Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions (Oct. 29–30 meeting) | – | – | – | |
| Mon 19:01 | GB | BRC Retail Sales Monitor, year over year (October) | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| Mon 21:00 | CN | China trade balance, U.S. dollars (October) | $125.8 billion | $133.53 billion | $105.3 billion | |
| Mon 21:00 | CN | China exports, year over year (October) | 33.5% | 36.3% | 35.2% | |
| Mon 21:00 | CN | China imports, year over year (October) | 32.0% | 31.0% | 41.6% | |
| 03:30 | GB | BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden panel at UBS European Conference | – | – | – | |
| 04:00 | US | Fed’s Governor Christopher Waller speaks at Bank of England and Its Watchers Conference (London) | – | – | – | |
| 05:00 | GB | UK Treasury gilt auction, 2056 maturity | – | 5.82% | – | |
| 07:30 | GB | BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli speaks at Bank Watchers Conference | – | – | – | |
| 08:30 | US | Consumer Price Index, month over month (October) | 0.3% | 0.6% | – | |
| 08:30 | US | Consumer Price Index, year over year (October) | 3.9% | 3.7% | – | |
| 08:30 | US | Core CPI, month over month (October) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – | |
| 08:30 | US | Core CPI, year over year (October) | 2.8% | 2.6% | – | |
| 08:30 | US | Real Earnings (October) | – | -0.5% month over month | – | |
| 09:00 | EU | ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone: introductory statement at European Parliament hearing onOvernight Session More the digital euro | – | – | – | |
| 11:45 | EU | ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane keynote at Bank of England and Its Watchers Conference | – | – | – | |
| 13:00 | US | U.S. Treasury 10-year note auction, $42 billion | – | – | – | |
| 13:30 | GB | BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill speaks | – | – | – | |
| 13:30 | US | Kansas City Fed’s President Jeffrey Schmid speaks | – | – | – | |
| 14:35 | US | Dallas Fed’s President Lorie Logan speaks | – | – | – | |
| 15:30 | US | Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks onOvernight Session More economic outlook (C. Peter McCollough Series) | – | – | – | |
| 16:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed’s President Anna Paulson speaks at Annual Field Meeting Capstone | – | – | – | |
| 18:30 | US | Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks onOvernight Session More economic outlook (A View from the Federal Reserve Board; virtual) | – | – | – |
Monday 9 November had no US data: the Fed’s Bowman (08:40), Goolsbee (10:00) and Barkin (12:15) spoke.
After the close
The cash closeThe S&P 500 rose 173.08 points (2.3%) to 7,549.94, the Dow 1,104.02 (2.2%) to 52,389.75 and the Nasdaq Composite
In addition to monitoring the previous day's Market prof... More 673.71 (2.7%) to 25,253.14. The AP called it the best day since April; Reuters said the S&P 500’s gain was its biggest since 8 April. Nvidia fell 4.3%. Oil slumped: Brent settled down $5.75 (5.85%) at $92.57 and WTI down $3.98 (4.38%) at $86.85 (Reuters).
EarningsThe Trade Desk beat: adjusted earnings of $0.33 a share against $0.25 expected and revenue of $736 million against about $651 million, with a fourth-quarter outlook of at least $755 million (about $692 million expected). Take-Two’s revenue of $1.497 billion missed about $1.65 billion expected, though net bookings of $1.601 billion beat $1.58 billion. Lucid missed, with revenue of $350 million against $407 million expected (CNBC, LSEG). Rocket Lab’s revenue beat at $267.8 million, and Occidental beat onOvernight Session More earnings ($1.91 adjusted against $1.47).
ES after hoursES traded 7569.75–7586.50 after the cash close and finished the Globex day at 7580.25. Tuesday’s overnight opened at 7578.50.
CPI liquidation from the top of Monday’s value: the sellers are still here
The overnight balanced into the CPI release at the top of Monday’s range, then liquidated lower onOvernight Session More the number to 7509.00, a new overnight low made onOvernight Session More the data. There are still sellers in this market. The open sits below Monday’s value, inside Monday’s buying tail. The question now is whether Monday’s extremes hold: if they give way, the full session’s one-time-framing lower continues, and Monday’s short-covering rally is at risk of a reversal.
CPI CANDLE H 7596.75 | L 7534.75 | 38.2% 7558.50 | 50% 7565.75 | 61.8% 7573.00 | ETH H 7598.75 | ETH L 7509.00 | ETH POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 7579.00 | OPEN 7523.00
Monitoring the CPI low 7509.00 · Monday’s low 7455.75 · the CPI candle’s 50% 7565.75
Overnight, CPI and the open
Into the dataThe overnight balanced at the top of Monday’s range: 7566.00–7598.75 before 08:30, inside and just above Monday’s value (7537.75–7594.50) and 1.75 points under Monday’s flat-top high (7600.50). The overnight POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More sits at 7579.00.
CPIThe 08:30 candle opened 7579.50, looked up to 7596.75, short of Monday’s high, and was sold to 7534.75, closing at 7543.75 onOvernight Session More 25,255 contracts. The liquidation carried onOvernight Session More to 7509.00 by 08:40: through Monday’s value, through the 35s shelf and into Monday’s single-print buying tail. That shows there are still sellers in this market.
Balance at the top of the prior day’s range, a look up that fails short of the high, then a liquidation onOvernight Session More the data: the late buyers from Monday’s short covering are the ones being tested this morning.
The CPI candleI draw a Fibonacci across the extremes of the release candle, 7596.75 to 7534.75. The retracements sit at 7558.50 (38.2%), 7565.75 (50%) and 7573.00 (61.8%). The 61.8% sits between Monday’s POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More (7571.00) and the overnight POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More (7579.00).
Overnight extremesETH high 7598.75, made in the balance before the data. ETH low 7509.00, made onOvernight Session More the data: an extreme made onOvernight Session More a release really needs watching, so it goes to the top of the list.
The openOpen 7523.00, below Monday’s value and below the 35s shelf, inside Monday’s buying tail. Against Monday’s 7572.25 close that is a settlement gap More of 49.25 points lower, not a true gapAn open where the price is above or below the previous day's... More: the open is inside Monday’s range (7455.75–7600.50). The first ten minutes traded 7514.50–7536.75, holding above the CPI low so far.
What matters today
1 · The CPI low, 7509.00The extreme made onOvernight Session More the data. Holding it keeps the liquidation contained inside Monday’s tail; losing it puts Monday’s lower references in play.
2 · Monday’s extremesMonday’s low 7455.75 and high 7600.50 frame the test. Below the open sits the rest of Monday’s single-print tail, down to 7455.75: thin, with little to stop a move through it. If Monday’s extremes hold, the market can rebalance inside Monday’s range. If they give way, the one-time-framing lower onOvernight Session More the full session continues, and Monday’s short-covering rally reverses.
3 · The CPI candleIts 50% at 7565.75 is the line between absorption and follow-through. Back above the 61.8% at 7573.00 and the liquidation is being repaired; held below the 38.2% at 7558.50 and sellers keep the initiative.
To hold the CPI low 7509.00 and get back into Monday’s value above 7537.75, then through Monday’s POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More (7571.00) and the CPI candle’s 61.8% (7573.00). That says the CPI liquidation was a test that failed.
Acceptance below the CPI low 7509.00, then a move through Monday’s tail towards 7476.50/7469.00 and Monday’s low 7455.75. A break of Monday’s low continues the weekly one-time-framing lower.
Levels for the session
| Price | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 7603.00 | Thu A-tail low | Bottom of the unrepaired opening tail (7603.00–7712.50) |
| 7600.50 | Mon high | The flat top; sellers resilient at 7600 |
| 7598.75 | ETH high | Top of the overnight balance, 1.75 points under Monday’s high |
| 7596.75 | CPI candle high | The release candle looked up and failed here |
| 7594.50 | Mon VAH | Top of Monday’s value |
| 7579.00 | ETH POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More | Where the overnight did its business |
| 7573.00 | CPI 61.8% | Fibonacci onOvernight Session More the CPI candle; between Monday’s POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More and the ETH POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More |
| 7572.25 | Mon close | Monday’s close: the settlement-gap reference |
| 7571.00 | Mon POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More | Where Monday’s business was done |
| 7565.75 | CPI 50% | Absorption or follow-through |
| 7558.50 | CPI 38.2% | Fibonacci onOvernight Session More the CPI candle |
| 7537.75 | Mon VAL | Bottom of Monday’s value |
| 7536.75 | Today’s high | First ten minutes |
| 7534.75 | CPI candle low | Bottom of the 08:30 release candle |
| 7534.25 | 35s shelf | Monday’s only real pullback was bought here |
| 7523.00 | Open | Below Monday’s value, inside Monday’s tail |
| 7514.50 | Today’s low | First ten minutes |
| 7509.00 | CPI low / ETH low | New overnight low made onOvernight Session More the data: top of the watch list |
| 7476.50 | Mon ETH high | Monday’s overnight breakout |
| 7469.00 | Fri high | Monday’s overnight breakout |
| 7455.75 | Mon low | Monday’s extreme: the test for OTF lower |
| 7392.00 | Fri low | Held Monday’s second overnight look lower |
General market information and analysis only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Content may be inaccurate or out of date, and prices may be delayed.
