Tue 10th Nov 2026 – CPI liquidation from the top of Monday’s value: the sellers are still here
Trend day up: the overnight short covering runs through the open to a flat top at 7600
The move that began at Sunday's gap-open low did not stop at the open. It added 101.50 points from the overnight low into the open, another 99.25 by 10:55, and closed near the highs. Sellers held 7600, last week's VPOC, and left a flat top above a big buying tail. The weekly auction is still one-time-framing lower, and CPI is at 08:30 Tuesday.
HOD 7600.50 | LOD 7455.75 | VPOC 7571.00 | MID 7528 | VWAP 7555.50 | VAH 7594.50 | VAL 7537.75 | CLOSE 7572.25
Monitoring flat top 7597–7603 · the 35s shelf 7534–7542 · CPI extremes
The session
OvernightSunday's true gap lower on the Nvidia news lasted a minute. Globex reopened at 7371.00, below Friday's RTH low (7392.00) and 31 points under Friday's Globex close. The look below last week's RTH low (7377.25) to 7363.75 failed at once, and short covering carried the overnight back into Friday's range. Two attempts lower failed, one capped at Friday's VAH (7451.75) and one held at Friday's low (7392.00). Then buyers took out Friday's high at 07:45. The overnight high was 7476.50.
A gap lower that fails inside a minute tells shorts the news is already in the price. Coming off Thursday’s 335-point liquidation, covering became the path of least resistance.
The open7465.25: inside Friday's range and above its value. That is a settlement gap, 64.75 points over Friday's 7400.50 close, not a true gap. A 9.50-point test held above Friday's VAH, and the drive started.
ContinuationThe open extended the overnight move instead of pausing it. The A period ran 70 points and left single prints from 7455.75 to 7519.00, the day's buying tail. B and C carried on to 7564.50 by 10:55. That was 99.25 points off the open and 200.75 off the overnight low, and it stopped right on last week's VWAP (7563.97).
There was no pullback of note for 90 minutes: A, B and C each made a new high. That is forced buying, with shorts paying up rather than buyers choosing their price.
RotationShort-term profit taking rotated price down into the 35s: 7537.75 at 11:35. Four references sit there: the bottom of Thursday's B-period singles (7539.00), last week's mid (7534.25), and the flat 30-minute SMA 200 and the rising SMA 20 (both about 7542). Buyers held it. From 12:00 to 14:30 the auction built value inside Thursday's singles, 7553.50–7580.00, on fading volume, repairing them.
This was the test that mattered. A short-covering rally that hands back its gains fails at the first shelf. This one held, built value higher and repaired Thursday’s singles: the market accepted the higher prices.
Push to the highsAt 14:35, as Al Arabiya reported (citing sources) that a preliminary US–Iran deal was likely, the day's most aggressive 5-minute bar broke the rotation higher on 366% RVOL. The push stopped at 7600: 7598.00 at 14:40, 7600.50 at 15:15, and 7597.75 again in M. Last week's VPOC (7597.00) and the bottom of Thursday's A-period tail (7603.00) sit right there. Sellers were resilient at 7600, and the top is flat.
Sellers who missed Thursday’s liquidation used 7600 to sell again. They held it in three periods but never pushed price away, and a flat top like that says the auction up there is not finished.
The closeA little profit taking in M took price to 7571.00, and the close of 7572.25 came at 80% of the range, inside value and on the POC.
Day typeTrend day up. It opened at the low (7% of the range) and closed near the high (80%), with range extension in C, K and L. The profile is P-shaped: a big buying tail at the bottom, a fat upper distribution and a flat top where sellers held 7600. A flat top has no excess, so the high is unfinished business.
A trend day out of a liquidation, built on a long single-print tail, is short covering in a hurry. Its fuel is shorts buying back. The next session shows whether new buyers take over above the flat top, or the market rotates back toward the tail.
Timeline
- Sun 18:00: true-gap reopen at 7371.00, below Friday's RTH low. The low, 7363.75, came in the opening minutes, under last week's RTH low; by 18:10 price was back at 7412.50. Look below and fail.
- 23:45: short covering fails at Friday's VAH (7452.50).
- 02:45: second look below Friday's low (7385.75). Buyers step in, 337% RVOL, close at 92% of the bar.
- 07:45–07:50: Friday's high taken on 306% RVOL; overnight high 7476.50; the next bar closes at its low (231%).
- 09:30: open 7465.25, low 7455.75 in the first five minutes, then the A-period drive.
- 10:55: the drive stops at last week's VWAP (7564.50 against 7563.97).
- 11:35: rotation low in the 35s (7537.75), at Thursday's B-singles low.
- 14:35: Iran headlines; 366% RVOL to 7593.50, the day's most aggressive bar.
- 15:15: high 7600.50, the flat top under last week's VPOC and Thursday's A tail.
- 15:30–16:00: profit taking in M to the POC (7571.00).
Who has control
Sellers have run the higher timeframe since mid-October. The weekly low has stepped down four weeks in a row (7676.00, 7648.50, 7558.25, 7322.25). Last week's high and low were both below the week before's: one-time-framing lower.
Inside that, control has changed hands on the daily. Sellers took it on 30 October with a true gap lower and on 2 November with a close near the low. Buyers grabbed it back on 4 November with a true gap higher. Thursday 5 November returned it to sellers decisively: a trend day down that opened at 99% of its range and closed at 1%, 335.25 points on 2.89M contracts. That liquidation left an A-period tail (7603.00–7712.50) and B-period singles (7539.00–7580.25). Friday could not extend it: an inside day on lighter volume with a weak close. On Monday buyers took the short term back, with a higher high and higher low than Friday, back inside Thursday's range, and Thursday's B singles repaired.
| Day | Structure | Control | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 30 Oct | True gap lower | Sellers | Opened 7669.50, under Thursday's 7725.25 low; 1.92M |
| Mon 2 Nov | Overlapping lower | Sellers | Close 7576.25, 5.50 points off the low |
| Tue 3 Nov | Inside day | Balance | 47.25-pt range on 1.05M |
| Wed 4 Nov | True gap higher | Buyers | Gap 7623.75–7679.75; close 7721.75 |
| Thu 5 Nov | Trend day down | Sellers | 7707.50 open to 7381.25 close; 5.0x average range; gap filled |
| Fri 6 Nov | Inside day | Balance | Sellers couldn't extend; 1.33M; weak close 7400.50 |
| Mon 9 Nov | Trend day up | Buyers (short term) | Back inside Thursday's range; buying tail; flat top at 7600 |
The timeframes conflict. The short term has turned up and the daily is back in balance, but the higher timeframe is still lower. Rallies inside a weekly downtrend are where longer-term sellers look to re-engage, so Tuesday's response at the flat top matters more than Monday's size.
Technicals and volume
Price closed above all three 30-minute averages: SMA 20 7539.62 (rising), SMA 50 7470.56 and SMA 200 7542.09 (flat). RSI 14 is 66.9, short of overbought. The SMA 20 and SMA 200 both sit on the 35s shelf, and the 11:35 pullback held there.
Volume
Monday's 1.45M RTH contracts were 0.94x the 10-day average and half of Thursday's 2.89M liquidation. A 145-point trend day on average volume fits short covering rather than new buying. The overnight was also average (0.95x). The heaviest periods were the open (A, 221k) and the close (M, 212k), and the close was a selling period.
Period by period
A7465.25 open, 7455.75 low, 7525.50 high. Open-test-drive; 70 points; singles 7455.75–7519.00.
BTo 7541.00; B singles 7525.75–7536.00. IB 7455.75–7541.00, 85.25 points.
CRange extension to 7564.50 at 10:55, on last week's VWAP.
D–EProfit taking to 7539.75 and 7537.75; the 35s held.
F–JRotation 7553.50–7580.00 inside Thursday's B singles; volume 68k to 49k a period.
KIran headlines; extension to 7598.00 on 160k, three times J.
LHigh 7600.50 at 15:15; 2.25 points of singles; the flat top.
M212k; profit taking to 7571.00; close 7572.25 on the POC.
What Monday means for Tuesday
Three things from Monday's auction carry into Tuesday.
1 · The flat top, 7597–7603Last week's VPOC, Monday's high and Thursday's A-tail low all sit here. A flat top is usually revisited. Acceptance above it starts the repair of Thursday's A tail (7603.00–7712.50), and that is the buyers' first job.
2 · The 35s shelf, 7534–7542This is where Monday's only real pullback was bought. Sellers need it to break, because below it Monday's single-print tail (7455.75–7536.00) offers little support down to Friday's high, 7469.00.
3 · Monday's value, 7537.75–7594.50This is balance, with the POC at 7571.00. Tuesday's overnight is holding inside it so far (7568.75–7586.50 by 21:50 ET).
CalendarFed's Waller 04:00 ET. US CPI for October at 08:30 ET; consensus is +0.3% m/m and 3.9% y/y headline, +0.2% m/m and 2.8% y/y core. The Treasury sells $42 billion of 10-year notes at 13:00 ET; the Fed's Schmid speaks at 13:30, Logan at 14:35 and Bowman at 15:30. Overnight, China's October exports rose 35.2% y/y and imports 41.6% (forecasts 33.5% and 32.0%), and Japan's September household spending fell 6.8% y/y.
CPI ruleMark the extremes of the 08:30 move. If CPI drives a new overnight high or low, that extreme goes to the top of the watch list into the open.
Acceptance above the flat top, 7603.00. That opens Thursday's A tail for repair, with last week's VAH and high (7744.25, 7746.25) the next references. The weekly one-time-framing lower stays intact until a trade above 7746.25.
A break of the 35s shelf, 7534.25. Then Monday's tail is the path of least resistance: 7519.00 (top of the A singles), then 7476.50 and 7469.00 (the overnight breakout).
Between the two, rotation inside Monday's value around 7571.00 is the default while CPI is pending.
Key levels into Tuesday
| Price | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 7746.25 | Last week's high | The weekly one-time-framing line |
| 7603.00 | Thu A-tail low | Bottom of the unrepaired opening tail (7603.00–7712.50) |
| 7600.50 / 7597.00 | Mon high / last week's VPOC | The flat top; sellers resilient at 7600 |
| 7594.50 | Mon VAH | Top of Monday's value |
| 7571.00 | Mon POC | The close sat on it (7572.25) |
| 7563.97 | Last week's VWAP | Stopped the morning drive |
| 7555.50 | Mon VWAP | Regular-hours VWAP |
| 7542–7534.25 | The 35s shelf | 30-min SMA 200 and 20 · Thu B-singles low 7539.00 · Mon VAL 7537.75 · last week's mid 7534.25 |
| 7536.00–7455.75 | Mon buying tail | A and B singles; thin, little to stop a move through |
| 7476.50 / 7469.00 | Mon ETH high / Fri high | The overnight breakout |
| 7455.75 | Mon low | The opening test |
| 7392.00 | Fri low | Held the overnight's second look lower |
| 7363.75 | Mon ETH low | Gap-open look below and fail |
| 7322.25 | Last week's low | Friday's unconfirmed overnight low |
Economic calendar
Tuesday 10 November, New York time (ET); medium and high impact. Rows marked Mon are Monday-evening releases in Asia and the UK (Tuesday local time).
| Time | Ctry | Event | Impact | Forecast | Previous | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 18:30 | JP | Household spending, year over year (September) | -3.1% | -3.1% | -6.8% | |
| Mon 18:30 | JP | Household spending, month over month, seasonally adjusted (September) | +0.3% | +0.1% | -2.8% | |
| Mon 18:50 | JP | Current account (September) | ¥3,354.4 billion | ¥4,062.0 billion | – | |
| Mon 18:50 | JP | Bank of Japan Summary of Opinions (Oct. 29–30 meeting) | – | – | – | |
| Mon 19:01 | GB | BRC Retail Sales Monitor, year over year (October) | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.1% | |
| Mon 21:00 | CN | China trade balance, U.S. dollars (October) | $125.8 billion | $133.53 billion | $105.3 billion | |
| Mon 21:00 | CN | China exports, year over year (October) | 33.5% | 36.3% | 35.2% | |
| Mon 21:00 | CN | China imports, year over year (October) | 32.0% | 31.0% | 41.6% | |
| 03:30 | GB | BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden panel at UBS European Conference | – | – | – | |
| 04:00 | US | Fed’s Governor Christopher Waller speaks at Bank of England and Its Watchers Conference (London) | – | – | – | |
| 05:00 | GB | UK Treasury gilt auction, 2056 maturity | – | 5.82% | – | |
| 07:30 | GB | BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli speaks at Bank Watchers Conference | – | – | – | |
| 08:30 | US | Consumer Price Index, month over month (October) | 0.3% | 0.6% | – | |
| 08:30 | US | Consumer Price Index, year over year (October) | 3.9% | 3.7% | – | |
| 08:30 | US | Core CPI, month over month (October) | 0.2% | 0.3% | – | |
| 08:30 | US | Core CPI, year over year (October) | 2.8% | 2.6% | – | |
| 08:30 | US | Real Earnings (October) | – | -0.5% month over month | – | |
| 09:00 | EU | ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone: introductory statement at European Parliament hearing on the digital euro | – | – | – | |
| 11:45 | EU | ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane keynote at Bank of England and Its Watchers Conference | – | – | – | |
| 13:00 | US | U.S. Treasury 10-year note auction, $42 billion | – | – | – | |
| 13:30 | GB | BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Huw Pill speaks | – | – | – | |
| 13:30 | US | Kansas City Fed’s President Jeffrey Schmid speaks | – | – | – | |
| 14:35 | US | Dallas Fed’s President Lorie Logan speaks | – | – | – | |
| 15:30 | US | Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on economic outlook (C. Peter McCollough Series) | – | – | – | |
| 16:30 | US | Philadelphia Fed’s President Anna Paulson speaks at Annual Field Meeting Capstone | – | – | – | |
| 18:30 | US | Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks on economic outlook (A View from the Federal Reserve Board; virtual) | – | – | – |
Monday 9 November had no US data: the Fed’s Bowman (08:40), Goolsbee (10:00) and Barkin (12:15) spoke.
After the close
The cash closeThe S&P 500 rose 173.08 points (2.3%) to 7,549.94, the Dow 1,104.02 (2.2%) to 52,389.75 and the Nasdaq Composite 673.71 (2.7%) to 25,253.14. The AP called it the best day since April; Reuters said the S&P 500's gain was its biggest since 8 April. Nvidia fell 4.3%. Oil slumped: Brent settled down $5.75 (5.85%) at $92.57 and WTI down $3.98 (4.38%) at $86.85 (Reuters).
EarningsThe Trade Desk beat: adjusted earnings of $0.33 a share against $0.25 expected and revenue of $736 million against about $651 million, with a fourth-quarter outlook of at least $755 million (about $692 million expected). Take-Two's revenue of $1.497 billion missed about $1.65 billion expected, though net bookings of $1.601 billion beat $1.58 billion. Lucid missed, with revenue of $350 million against $407 million expected (CNBC, LSEG). Rocket Lab's revenue beat at $267.8 million, and Occidental beat on earnings ($1.91 adjusted against $1.47).
ES after hoursES traded 7569.75–7586.50 after the cash close and finished the Globex day at 7580.25. Tuesday's overnight opened at 7578.50.
CPI liquidation from the top of Monday's value: the sellers are still here
The overnight balanced into the CPI release at the top of Monday's range, then liquidated lower on the number. There are still sellers in this market. The question now is whether Monday's extremes hold: if they give way, the full session's one-time-framing lower continues, and Monday's short-covering rally is at risk of a reversal.
CPI CANDLE H 7596.75 | L 7534.75 | 38.2% 7558.50 | 50% 7565.75 | 61.8% 7573.00 | ETH H 7598.75 | ETH L 7509.00 | ETH POC 7579.00 | OPEN 7523.00
Monitoring the CPI low 7509.00 · Monday's low 7455.75 · the CPI candle's 50% 7565.75
Overnight, CPI and the open
Into the dataBefore 08:30 the overnight traded 7566.00–7598.75, at the top of Monday's value and just above it (7537.75–7594.50), 1.75 points under Monday's high (7600.50). The overnight POC sits at 7579.00.
CPIThe 08:30 candle opened 7579.50, traded 7596.75–7534.75 and closed 7543.75 on 25,255 contracts. The move carried on to 7509.00 by 08:40, a new overnight low made on the data.
Balance at the top of Monday's range into the data, then a liquidation on the number. That shows there are still sellers in this market: the short covering that carried Monday met supply again.
Balance at the top of the prior day's range, a look up that fails short of the high, then a liquidation on the data: the late buyers from Monday's short covering are the ones being tested this morning.
The CPI candleI draw a Fibonacci across the extremes of the release candle, 7596.75 to 7534.75. The retracements sit at 7558.50 (38.2%), 7565.75 (50%) and 7573.00 (61.8%).
Overnight extremesETH high 7598.75 (01:30), ETH low 7509.00 (08:40). The low was made on the data: an extreme made on a release really needs watching, so it goes to the top of the list.
The openOpen 7523.00, below Monday's value. That is a settlement gap of 49.25 points lower against Monday's 7572.25 close, not a true gap: the open is inside Monday's range (7455.75–7600.50). The first 10 minutes traded 7514.50–7536.75, holding the CPI low so far (data to 09:40 ET).
What matters today
1 · The CPI low, 7509.00The extreme made on the data. Holding it keeps the move contained; losing it puts Monday's lower references in play.
2 · Monday's extremesMonday's low 7455.75 and high 7600.50 frame the test. If they hold, the market can rebalance inside that range; if one gives way, the auction is leaving it.
3 · The CPI candleIts 50% at 7565.75 is the line between absorption and follow-through. Back through the 61.8% at 7573.00 and the move is being repaired; held below the 38.2% at 7558.50 and the sellers keep the initiative.
To hold the CPI low 7509.00 and get back into Monday's value above 7537.75, then through Monday's POC (7571.00) and the candle's 61.8% (7573.00). That says the CPI move was a test that failed.
Acceptance below the CPI low 7509.00, then 7476.50 (Mon ETH high / Fri high) and 7455.75 (Mon low). A break of Monday's low 7455.75 takes the auction out of Monday's range.
Levels for the session
| Price | Level | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| 7746.25 | Last week's high | The weekly one-time-framing line |
| 7603.00 | Thu A-tail low | Bottom of the unrepaired opening tail (7603.00–7712.50) |
| 7600.50 | Mon high / last week's VPOC | The flat top; sellers resilient at 7600 |
| 7598.75 | ETH high | Overnight high |
| 7596.75 | CPI candle high | Top of the release candle |
| 7594.50 | Mon VAH | Top of Monday's value |
| 7579.00 | ETH POC | Where the overnight did its business |
| 7573.00 | CPI 61.8% | Fibonacci on the CPI candle |
| 7571.00 | Mon POC | The close sat on it (7572.25) |
| 7565.75 | CPI 50% | Fibonacci on the CPI candle |
| 7563.97 | Last week's VWAP | Stopped the morning drive |
| 7558.50 | CPI 38.2% | Fibonacci on the CPI candle |
| 7555.50 | Mon VWAP | Regular-hours VWAP |
| 7542.00 | The 35s shelf | 30-min SMA 200 and 20 · Thu B-singles low 7539.00 · Mon VAL 7537.75 · last week's mid 7534.25 |
| 7536.75 | Today's high | First 10 minutes |
| 7536.00 | Mon buying tail | A and B singles; thin, little to stop a move through |
| 7534.75 | CPI candle low | Bottom of the release candle |
| 7523.00 | Open | Below Monday's value |
| 7514.50 | Today's low | First 10 minutes |
| 7509.00 | CPI low · ETH low | The extreme made on the data: top of the watch list |
| 7476.50 | Mon ETH high / Fri high | The overnight breakout |
| 7455.75 | Mon low | The opening test |
| 7392.00 | Fri low | Held the overnight's second look lower |
| 7363.75 | Mon ETH low | Gap-open look below and fail |
| 7322.25 | Last week's low | Friday's unconfirmed overnight low |
General market information and analysis only. Not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Content may be inaccurate or out of date, and prices may be delayed.
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