Debriefing 1st June 2022 and Today’s Plan

Links

Weekly Analysis

Prior Day’s Trading Notes: 

Today’s Live Link:

Live on YouTube:

Images can be found onOvernight Session More Twitter

Need to know market risk @ FINANCIAL JUICE: 

• Ukraine’s President Zelensky: There is the possibility of an inflection point in the country’s conflict.
• Kremlin: Russia won’t sell oil at a loss.
• Gulf OPEC Source: The decision onOvernight Session More Russian compensation is highly possible at today’s meeting.
• Russia may agree to OPEC+ compensating its current drop in oil production because of sanctions – OPEC+ Source

Data

Yesterday’s Market Profile and Price Action Debrief

If anything, yesterday’s ONOvernight Session More session showed us that longs remain comfortable, and shorts are unwilling to press the auction lower. The OnOvernight Session More session was in complete balance inside the prior day’s TPO Value area More (H: 4156.75 -L:4123.25). Going into the RTHRegular trading hours. The official opening and closing time... More session we want to be looking for signs of continued acceptance or a willingness to at least test the outer edged of balance where if given enough force the auction may trend to find balance elsewhere. There is no guarantee that a market in balance remains in balance and looking for clues is key. If you would like to view my balance trading rules, please click here.

The handover into the RTHRegular trading hours. The official opening and closing time... More session was a simple affair and the thinking should be, can a move away from balance be sustained, balance from both the prior OnOvernight Session More session and the prior RTHRegular trading hours. The official opening and closing time... More session? What are these signs and more importantly what are the signs of failure? We opened @4154.25 just below the important reference point from last Week’s Settlement (pwkSettle) @4156 and just inside the prior days Value Area More High (VAH). An initial break above the ONOvernight Session More high looked good for longs but a shallow PB (Pull Back) consolidation failed to then only improved onOvernight Session More the opening swing high buy a singular point to 4165. This was a good first clue, and once we reverted through the Open and back into prior Value shorts took control of the auction. Notice the chop zone below PwkSettle

Once sellers broke through this choppy container the PAPrice action More cleaned up with a single PB to a Stalk Zone (SZ) @4132*. The auction continued lower to find support at the predesignated areas 4100 and more importantly, the small gap More (4070-4079) left behind from the auction onOvernight Session More the 27^th. This was an important area of support and mentioned as an OU (Over and Under) level for the HTF auction. Buyers want to defend this gap More to maintain control of the general auction despite the fact they lost the daily OTFUOne time frame up. More (One Time Framing Up).

The auction failed to materially break through the gap More low as passive buyers absorbed sellers liquidity and weaker sellers were pushed back to just below Tuesday’s auction VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More (Volume Point of Control) @ 4130. This has left a lower distribution high @4128 and a key area to observe into today. There are multiple singles and sellers will want to maintain them to continue to OTFDOne time frame down. More, the singles marker high is at 4141.5.

The auction Is now in a 3-day balance not including Monday’s session (Considered ON session as it was a holiday). Looking to see if sellers can break through Wednesday lows at @4171 and if buyers can push sellers through the singles left onOvernight Session More yesterday’s TPO chart with 4100 acting as a short-term OU.

We have weakened structure below given the huge, short-covering rally and we have in the last two weeks, Multiple NVPOCS as potential targets.

*Trade taken short, exit 4001&4011

‘Double Distribution’

3 DAY BALANCE, OTFDOne time frame down. More DAILY (4165) & WEEKLY OTFUOne time frame up. More (3872), NEW MONTH BALANCE

(Not a ‘b’ distribution can you comment why? Winner gets a 10min chat in person onOvernight Session More Friday:)

HI 4165| L 4071.5 | VWAPThe VWAP or Volume-Weighted-Average-Price is a moving averag... More 4108 | VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 4103 |PCLS 4098.5| RANGE 93.5

Realistic Targets Given Current ATR

UPSIDE: 4128 |4141| 4167| 4183 | 4200| 4220 | 4250| 4274| 4303

DOWNSIDE: 4071| 4054 | 4031| 4015 | 3990 | 3972 | 3948 | 3932 |

Yesterdays Price Action Review

ON Update

The auction is balanced and holding inside yesterday’s lower distribution looking for continued balance or change. Nothing new to report.

HI 4124| L 4083| VWAPThe VWAP or Volume-Weighted-Average-Price is a moving averag... More 4103 | VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 4100 | RANGE 41

 

Opening Bell

*US Jobless Claims -11K To 200K In May-28 Wk; Survey 210K *US May-21 Week Continuing Claims -34K to 1,309,000

*US 1Q Non-Farm Productivity Revised -7.3%, Prelim -7.5% …

US Initial Jobless Claims Actual 200k (Forecast 210k, Previous 210k)

13:30 Jun 02US BondsUS IndexesUSD

US Continued Jobless Claims Actual 1.309M (Forecast 1.34M, Previous 1.346M)

US Labor Costs Revised Actual 12.6% (Forecast 11.6%, Previous 11.6%)

US Productivity Revised Actual -7.3% (Forecast -7.5%, Previous -7.5%)

LIVE Journal

OK Walking away early today it’s half term and I need a break. No trades today in ES. In the stream today I mention footprint and was walking through today’s PAPrice action More. It is a great tool. I will write up the Foor print PAPrice action More for you to review but check out the live stream from the US Open. If anybody wants me to do a run-through Footprint we can do it onOvernight Session More Tuesday.

Just to wrap up:

14.50 Open rejection of prior close @99 and quick move to the prior gap More from the 27th of May. Buyers and Sellers battling it out in this key OU area mentioned in the weekly review.

Quote Of the Day

Finally, let’s talk about stops, and _keeping an open mind_ . Notice I closed my trade when prices pushed above the level I had planned/posted? _No second-guessing. No “let’s just see if it turns here” and no changing my plan in the middle of a trade_ . And what did I gain from having a plan and being disciplined? _A profit_ – instead of a loss from continuing to hold a trade that didn’t unfold as planned. But I would’ve looked like a Market Wizard if the trade stopped there and went my way! And that I was a fortune teller! *Once you let go of your need to be right – and value your account worth more than your ego – that will put you far ahead in the realm of professional trading, and not a retail hacker that relies more onOvernight Session More luck than discipline.– LongShortorFlat @CT

“It’s only work if you would rather be doing something else. Find a way to carve a career out of what you already want to do.”- James Clear

Trade Well And Prosper.

BT