Debriefing  Friday 24th June and Todays Journal

Debriefing Friday 24th June and Todays Journal

June 27, 2022 0 By The Balanced Trader

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  • ECB: ECB moves announcement of its monetary policy decisions to 14:15 CET, starting 21st July 2022.
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Monday’s Data

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Friday’s Market Profile Debrief

Profile review: correction Fridayhigh at 3919.75 NOT 3911

Friday’s Price Action Review

Into Friday RTH, the auction had failed to break below stubborn support above the VPOC 3780, leaving an NVPOC before squeezing into the open with an incredible resolve by buyers to absorb all supply at higher levels opening. It felt like sellers had been taken by surprise breaking above the prior three days’ balance (auction 21-23 June). Short into the open were hoping for a readjustment lower on the open, and that hope failed 75 seconds post the open when an impulse higher set of mini panic to Tarde above the prior week’s high, ending the weekly OTFD above 3843. 

 (TOP TOP: Don’t fade breakout rallies, especially from multiple-day balance).

A series of stops drove the ES futures contract quickly and mercilessly higher, briefly consolidating in a tight cluster at 3855 before screaming towards 3899 where the IB HIGH formed. 

Price Action into Open on Friday

ES futures contract was up over 2.3% from the previous close, with an unbroken IB. As mentioned on a Friday tweet, the probability of a higher move was high (the IB is broken 97% of days), but given the size of the moves already, it would be challenging to take on risk for a limited upside. Given the fact that the IB range was almost 50 points. In other words, the days best opportunity had passed and given it was Friday an excellent idea to turn it off.  

The auction then flagged higher in low volume for 6 hours, much like the price action into the open ( see chart below), until the auction broke 3902 into the close and created another stop run to Settle at the day’s high 3919. This indicates unfinished business!

This setup was in line with Friday’s scenario setups.  It was scenario C. My prep was written 3-4 hours pre-open and I tried to alert followers my thinking was moving towards an open drive given the way the ON auction was holding. The inability into the open for any movement lower into the close was ominous for trapped shorts out of 3-day balance. . Please look at the Price Action

TREND, Breakout Higher Day, Daily Imbalance, OTFU

H: 3919.75 L: 3831 VPOC 3890 VWAP 3882 SETTLE: 3819

MONITORING: 3919(Settle)3890 (vPOC) &  ON LOW 3890 | 3857 (Upper Distribution Low),| 3943 & 3960 10th June Spike | 4016 (Gap)

Tweet Highlights

ON Update and Monday’s Plan

ON another strong push higher following multiple attempts to break below 3895 following an initial strong impulse on the open. Shorts squeezed higher to encroach into the spike highs left from the 10th June Auction. I will be updated if I have time I won’t be able to trade much today.

04.30 CT Small clue is the recent pull back from 3948 to 3930 a lot deeper than Fridays showing w may run into supply up here. Still too early to make bigger plans. I will be updated if I have time I won’t be able to trade much today.

ON action

GAP RULES Again!

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Quote Of the Day

Time is your friend, impulse is your enemy.

Trade Well And Prosper.

BT