Debriefing Juneteenth Holiday 20.06.22 and Todays Journal

June 21, 2022 0 By The Balanced Trader
Links and News

Weekly Analysis

Live on YouTube

Images can be found on Twitter

Need to know market risk @ FinancialJuice.com

  • ECB’s Kazimir: Half-point September hike is highly probable.
  • ECB’s Rehn: Very likely Sept. rate hike is bigger than 0.25 ppts.
  • BoE’s Pill: I see further tightening ahead in the coming months.
Today’s Data

Yesterday’s  Holiday Market Profile and Price Action Debrief

Weekly Analysis Please review the weekend notes.

Yesterday’s Price Action Review

Stops in ES through 3723

An instant reaction from sellers in this holiday market. Is that hunting? I find holiday markets you need to pick the most obvious spots and look for the reaction if you play in the middle you will get run over.

3723 was an obvious area to trade, the reaction was exactly what I wanted to see and now it’s in the lap of the gods. Look back to Memorial day and the overnight grind to Century 4202 on the 30/5.

I think it’s ok to trade holidays if you can pick your spot and maintain your discipline. The spots that everyone is looking at are usually the best. 3723 was clearly mentioned in my weekend prep sent out on Saturday. Have a good #JuneteenthDay #Trader #ES_F

What I am trying to show is I had a plan, I saw what I wanted to see and executed it without hesitation. If the trade now works or doesn’t I don’t care I will be in the garden.

Originally tweeted by The Balanced Trader (@Trading_Balance) on June 20, 2022.

Stops up to 3741

ON Update

ON UPDATE REFER TO WEEKEND HOMEWORK FOR HTF LEVELS AND ANALYSIS

A very quiet session yesterday perhaps given the lack of overall direction into the OPEX close and the fact markets were officially closed. Initial positive Sunday open saw a test of the 3708 a failure to look above saw sellers reverse auction through the previous close and Friday’s VPOC 3675 before finding buyers at 3661.25. The auction has since ground higher finding some resistance/profit taking at the notable reference points 3712, 3723,3741, and 3750 ( Composite HVN).

Today is information day, usually a Monday but there was a holiday

Today we will probably open with a large gap out of range ending the OTFD on the daily and we will be looking for clues of acceptance or rejection on the open. ON inventory is very long and will be monitoring for an adjustment into/ at the open. Buyers will need to show some initiative early to cement these gains.

Monitoring

Most important will be Friday’s high and the high from the last week’s lower distribution extreme 3712. I will be monitoring for a test back given the large ON/Holiday gains. The question today is whether or not buyers can maintain these holiday gains currently up 1.6% from the prior close of 3679. A successful hold of this area will Target higher and the HVN from last week’s profile 3775. OR

An Open impulse Up to 3741 and 3749 fails to take the short back to 3712.

A drop back through 3712 will see weekend longs liquidate lower in my opinion and see us retest the previous close 3679 and VPOC 3675. Buyers will need to respond here to avoid another test of the yearly low of 3639.

ON (Including yesterday’s PA) Trend, Short Covering, Trading inside last week’s upper distribution (3712 -3878.5)

ON H 3749 ON L 3661.5 ON VPOC 3734 VWAP 3711 PRIOR CLOSE 3679

Opening Bell

08.30 CT Buyers immediately step in on the open, NQ and ES quickly advance up to the prior week’s HVN at 3775. No trade taken in ES. I favoured a long set-up in RTY which gave me a little more time to assess the picture.

Looking at the open gap and go

10 am CT

Looks good to me

11.30 CT PB from the high to the Session Mid, FS VWAP to a low of 3757.25 missed my entry at 57.

LIVE Journal

Not much to talk about post open. The market formed a P-distribution as I write this which is typical of a short covering rally. There was one notable PB from the early highs at 3781 that found buyers just below the VWAP, Session mid at 3757. PA into this area was slow and hard to gauge and there was very little increase in volume into VWAP to confirm buyers were ready to hold this area.

Moreover, the bounce came from the earlier zipper off the open. See below.

Once the PB from the initial high at 3781 down to 3757 is complete you need to be thinking this is going to balance on top forming a P distribution. Also, this is a short cover rally spike base 3757.25 must be observed into tomorrow

This was a discord message at 08.40 CT

Image

1500 Into the close and the auction rotates back through POC to close 3665. Will be observing the close for a push down to the spike base formed at 3757. Buyers will need to protect this area.

Quote Of the Day

“Every battle is won or lost before it’s ever fought”– Sun Tzu

Trade Well And Prosper.

BT