
Debriefing Monday 11th July and Today’s Journal

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- Nomura expects ECB to hike rates by 175 bps by March 2023, then expects a 25 bps rate cut in June 2023 as the potential recession drags onOvernight Session More.
- Nomura expects Fed to start rate cuts in September 2023 after reaching the terminal rate of 3.50-3.75% in February 2023.
- EU Energy Chief Simson: Summer energy cuts can avoid winter shortages.
- IEA Executive Director Birol hopes G7 plan to impose price caps onOvernight Session More Russian oil gets buy-in from several countries.
- EOPC forecasts world oil demand will grow by 2.7 million bpd in 2023 – Monthly report.
- OPEC: We forecast 2023 global economic growth of 3.2%, leave 2022 view unchanged at 3.5% and uncertainty remains skewed to the downside.
Tuesdays’ Data
Mondays PAPrice action More review

Monday Debrief
Mondays Debrief
Monday’s session reminded us just what summer markets are all about. The range was under 35 points. Slow sluggish, and lacking in conviction. This is not an excuse to concentrate less but perhaps a time to take some time off completely.
Nonetheless, the RTHRegular trading hours. The official opening and closing time... More session opened with a gap More to the prior close but still inside the prior day’s range. A test to the ONOvernight Session More session balance high was met with a response from sellers breaking the 2-day low at 3866 but only auctioning down as far as 3850 area where demand was found. IB lowThe lowest value that is printed from the opening 1 hour of ... More/ high remained intact before a failed reversal to the IB gave sellers some ammunition to retest the low, breaking the IB lowThe lowest value that is printed from the opening 1 hour of ... More by a single point. Very Sluggish indeed.
ONOvernight Session More the auction traded through the poor RTH lows 3850 (stops expected) running down to the prior NVPOC and forming a low at 3820.75. Notice this low coincides with the VAL from the 6th July auction. A hefty(heavy-bottomed) profile with ONOvernight Session More inventory short. I Will be looking for an adjustment into the open or onOvernight Session More the open, and a failure to see a response may see further downside. Again a lack of conviction news has not changed much as we are waiting for more info. Still trading in the middle of last week’s range.
I will monitor the ONOvernight Session More lows and spike base 3820 & 3824 and yesterday’s lows 3850 for a retest of longs demand and a move to the previous balance area 3866 -3922. If the auction fails to hold the ONOvernight Session More lows 3820, I would expect a test and repair of the singles markers left from 7/5. I would expect to find some support inside the composite
In addition to monitoring the previous day's Market prof... More HVNHigh volume node, or peak. An area that has been well traded... More. These are murky waters inside HTF balance. Expect chop.
Normal Day (IBInitial balance in the futures is traditionally the first ho... More Broken by single point **clue)
H: 3884 L: 3850 VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 3757 3780 SETTLE: 3857
MONITORING: 3850- yLOPrevious days lowest print. More | 3871 prior balance low|
ONOvernight Session More SESSION | Double Distribution.
ONOvernight Session More H: 3865 ONOvernight Session More L: 3820.75 ONOvernight Session More POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 3835
REMEMBER TO LOOK AT THE WEEKLY RESEARCH EVERYDAY
Update and Monday’s Plan
Not trading today- so no plan but would be waiting for the ONOvernight Session More Singles marker and yesterdays lo 3850 for signs of buying weakness.
Will be wanting to see a positive response from buyers onOvernight Session More the Open given the ONOvernight Session More weakness. Should this fail to materialise I would expect a quick liquidation to 3807 3796 and the NVPOC3759. Good luck everyone.

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