Debriefing Monday 11th July and Today’s Journal

Debriefing Monday 11th July and Today’s Journal

July 12, 2022 0 By The Balanced Trader

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Need to know market risk @ FinancialJuice.com

  • Nomura expects ECB to hike rates by 175 bps by March 2023, then expects a 25 bps rate cut in June 2023 as the potential recession drags on.
  • Nomura expects Fed to start rate cuts in September 2023 after reaching the terminal rate of 3.50-3.75% in February 2023.
  • EU Energy Chief Simson: Summer energy cuts can avoid winter shortages.
  • IEA Executive Director Birol hopes G7 plan to impose price caps on Russian oil gets buy-in from several countries.
  • EOPC forecasts world oil demand will grow by 2.7 million bpd in 2023 – Monthly report.
  • OPEC: We forecast 2023 global economic growth of 3.2%, leave 2022 view unchanged at 3.5% and uncertainty remains skewed to the downside.

Tuesdays’ Data

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com UK.
July 11th Profile review
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Mondays PA

Monday Debrief

Mondays Debrief

Monday’s session reminded us just what summer markets are all about. The range was under 35 points. Slow sluggish, and lacking in conviction. This is not an excuse to concentrate less but perhaps a time to take some time off completely.

Nonetheless, the RTH session opened with a gap to the prior close but still inside the prior day’s range. A test to the ON session balance high was met with a response from sellers breaking the 2-day low at 3866 but only auctioning down as far as 3850 area where demand was found. IB low/ high remained intact before a failed reversal to the IB  gave sellers some ammunition to retest the low, breaking the IB low by a single point. Very Sluggish indeed.

ON the auction traded through the poor RTH  lows 3850  (stops expected) running down to the prior NVPOC  and forming a low at 3820.75. Notice this low coincides with the VAL from the 6th July auction. A hefty(heavy-bottomed) profile with ON inventory short. I Will be looking for an adjustment into the open or on the open, and a failure to see a response may see further downside. Again a lack of conviction news has not changed much as we are waiting for more info. Still trading in the middle of last week’s range.

I will monitor the ON lows and spike base  3820 & 3824 and yesterday’s lows 3850 for a retest of longs demand and a move to the previous balance area 3866 -3922. If the auction fails to hold the ON lows 3820,  I would expect a test and repair of the singles markers left from 7/5. I would expect to find some support inside the composite HVN. These are murky waters inside HTF balance. Expect chop.

Normal Day (IB Broken by single point **clue)

H: 3884 L: 3850 VPOC 3757 3780 SETTLE: 3857

MONITORING: 3850- yLO | 3871 prior balance low|

ON SESSION  | Double Distribution.

ON H: 3865 ON L: 3820.75 ON POC 3835

REMEMBER TO LOOK AT THE WEEKLY RESEARCH EVERYDAY

Update and Monday’s Plan

Not trading today- so no plan but would be waiting for the ON Singles marker and yesterdays lo 3850 for signs of buying weakness.

Will be wanting to see a positive response from buyers on the Open given the ON weakness. Should this fail to materialise I would expect a quick liquidation to 3807 3796 and the NVPOC3759. Good luck everyone.

Fridays Profile Debrief and a look at ON auction

Opening Bell

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Quote Of the Day

Limit your size in any position so that fear does not become the prevailing instinct guiding your judgment. –Joe Vidich

Trade Well And Prosper.

BT