Debriefing NFP Friday 8th July and Today’sJournal

Debriefing NFP Friday 8th July and Today’sJournal

July 11, 2022 0 By The Balanced Trader

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  • Riksbank’s Dep. Gov. Ohlsson: I had supported a hike of 75 basis-points bps if the majority agreed.
  • Japan’s PM Kishida plans a cabinet reshuffle in August or September, according to Nikkei.

Mondays’ Data

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com UK.
July 8th Profile review

Fridays Profile Debrief

Fridays +ON PA review
Week ON session breaking the 2 day low.

NFP Friday Debrief

Friday ON session into NFP data saw the auction balance inside Thursday continuation rally that has now seen value shifting higher three sessions in a row (auction is OTFU on daily).   

What was notable into the NFP was how balanced the ON profile was trading inside the prior VA and strong absorption at the prior VAL, leaving a poor low into NFP data. 

NFP data beat and liquidations in treasury assets lead to higher yields 

and a stepping curve, which made ON longs think twice about holding. A choppy auction followed the data trading into the recently created non-excess lows, resulting in a fast-paced liquidation move through the ON lows 3782 to backtest the spike base carried forward from Thursday. Only managing to auction as low as 3867, one point from the previous day’s low, was an important clue( lack of conviction by sellers).

A bounce off the 3867 to open 3887.5 resulted in a continuation of the auction to 3901. Sellers lay waiting and attempted once again to break the OTFU but failed at 3871.5. This showed a lack of conviction, and buyers reversed the auction higher to restest into the previous day’s high 3914.25. The break above the high was weak ( only held above for less than 2 TPO), leaving the daily high at 3922 (another clue, lack of conviction to hold trade above the previous day’s high.) The failed auction led to another rotation lower to a new higher low 3881—

A choppy balanced session with neither buyers nor sellers accomplishing anything. Value remains at an almost identical level to the prior session 3906. 

Normal Variation Day

H: 3922 L: 3871.5 VPOC 3906 MID 3896 VWAP 3901 SETTLE: 3906

MONITORING: 3922- High  | 3871 Lows |

REMEMBER TO LOOK AT THE WEEKLY RESEARCH EVERYDAY

Update and Monday’s Plan

Not trading today- so no plan but would be waiting for the ON extremes. Will be wanting to see a positive response from buyers on the Open given the ON weakness. Should this fail to materialise I would expect a quick liquidation to 3830 the NVPOC. Good luck everyone.

Fridays Profile Debrief and a look at ON auction

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0830CT

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Limit your size in any position so that fear does not become the prevailing instinct guiding your judgment. –Joe Vidich

Trade Well And Prosper.

BT