Debriefing Tuesday 28th June and Todays Journal

Debriefing Tuesday 28th June and Todays Journal

June 29, 2022 0 By The Balanced Trader

Links and News

Weekly Analysis Yesterdays Journal Live on YouTubeTwitter

Need to know market risk @ FinancialJuice.com

  • ECB’s Wunsch: 150 basis-points of hikes by March is reasonable.
  • Fed’s Mester: I think right now I would be advocating for 75 basis-points.
  • ECB’s Holzmann: The ECB can move in 25-50 basis-point steps after September.
  • ECB’s Simkus: 50 bps hike very likely for September.

Wednesday’s Data

Real Time Economic Calendar provided by Investing.com UK.

Tuesdays Profile
Tuesdays Debrief: market profile
Tuesdays Price Action Analysis
Need to update this

Tuesdays Debrief

Tuesday’s ON was neutral balanced, having penetrated both Monday’s High and Low if only briefly to handover into the RTH 15 points above Monday’s close. ON inventory was slightly long and as always when an opening gap to the close presents itself, the opening statement from participants is a crucial clue for the session. 

Tuesday’s opening statement by buyers participants was bold with an OPEN DRIVE straight up from 3920 to a high 3950, but…

For anyone who had legitimately chased the strong impulse up, there was an equally important message from sellers who stood waiting resolutely at Monday’s ON session high 3948. Soaking up demand and trapping longs (High created 3950.25). 

The Reversal was slow and steady, trickling lower back to the opening price of 3920.25. Sellers having reversed the buyer’s bold opening statement, the auction briefly held at the opening price of 3920.25. Buyers, now confused, held up supply before eventually succumbing. Trapped longs began to liquidate. 

At first through Mondays, VPOC 3905 and holding underneath (key clue) then slicing through Monday’s lows 3892.5 before the trend was set lower. (KEY clue: Visual references sliced through).

Traders had to be ready and yesterday’s tweet into the open was key, recognising the composite balance that had accumulated potential for a liquidation. Buyers had dramatically failed to break Mondays ON HI, a weak reference. 

Another critical clue was Delta aggressively moving lower throughout the session following the opening 5minute spike. 

3825 was where the auction came to Settle. This was not a prominent spot, but it was highlighted in the notes yesterday. It was the gap mid:) This will be a crucial battleground for today. Auction into the close seemed unfinished despite many calling the lows were still in a bear market. 

Sometimes the market needs to break higher to go lower and vice versa

-Jim Dalton. 

Pre-open tweet watch that balance that had developed, esp the lows

ON Update and Wednesday’s Plan

08.26 CT will be patient on the open gap 3805 and upper node 3843 key for the open. we have lots of speakers and will not rush. Want to see reactions to these levels.

Opening Bell

0830 CT Sellers take control straight away. Correlations in play as 2 other major indices quickly decline whilst ES holds.

Was not planning to trade but I did! Off the open, my biggest aid | correlations both NQ and RTY quick to liquidate lower on the open with ES lagged slightly. This gave me an edge, split-second decision-making that is not a transferable skill. Exits were based on pre-R/R + levels

The first entry stopped out in 20sec. but then entered with two clips scaling out to cover risk and run the rest. to targets. I accept my risk and loss pre-entry and keep trading my edge. #nofear Trading is not a quick fix.

Funnily finished a video today about execution speed and DOM setups where I talk about correlation and their importance. It’s been a while but that refresher came in handy today.

LIVE Journal

10am CT signs for chop were there from the first 15min. May break either way but I am not wasting my time. Walk away from chop unless you scalp.

Quote Of the Day

We should reward people, not ridicule them, for thinking the impossible.” 
― Nasem Taleb,

Trade Well And Prosper.

BT