Weeks Review into W/C 13th June 2022
Week Ahead Highlights: FOMC, BoE, BoJ meetings, US and China May data
Central bank meetings will be in focus in the coming week with the US Fed, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan all due to update their monetary policy decisions in the coming week. In the data docket, US retail sales, industrial production and PPI data will be watched midway into the second quarter. Likewise in China, where retail sales and industrial output figures will be released. In the UK, April GDP data and the monthly labour market report will be eagerly awaited.
Following the US CPI data release this week, the Fed’s FOMC meeting will be the highlight in the coming week. Market sentiment remains weak at present amid concerns over stubborn inflation and the impact of high prices onOvernight Session More growth, with recent US PMI data pointing to slowing business activity amid rising prices and softer demand. While a 50 basis point hike appears to be the foregone conclusion at this point according to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed’s rhetoric and projection will be eagerly followed for indications onOvernight Session More the path forward and the resultant impact that will play into growth forecasts.
Events Calendar:
Monday, June 13
- Oracle (ORCL) reports earnings
- Federal Reserve Speech by Lael Brainard
- Consumer Inflation Expectations (May)
Tuesday, June 14
- Day 1 of June FOMC Meeting
- Producer Price Inflation (PPI) (May)
- IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (June)
Wednesday, June 15
- Day 2 of June FOMC Meeting; Interest Rate Decision
- NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (June)
- NAHB Housing Market Index (June)
- Retail Sales (May)
Thursday, June 16
Friday, June 17
- Industrial Production (May)
- Manufacturing Production (May)
- Conference Board Leading Index (May)
Weekend Reading:
Into the FOMC: DANSKE BANK
Profile Review
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Month Week Review| WE 10th June 2022 | CPI FRIDAY

Following onOvernight Session More from an 8-day period of balance the floodgates finally opened after Thursday post ECB open. This liquidation was well anticipated by participants but the timing of the short trade was tricky as buyers resolutely tried to fight off the high probability of stops lurking below 4071. It was an event to stick around for but many traders had given up as the Price ActionPrice action More ( PAPrice action More was super tricky early onOvernight Session More). the break lower happened in J period into the close.
TOP TIP NEVER FADE A LATE-DAY BREAKOUT ESPECIALLY WHEN WE ARE COMING OUT OF HUGE BALANCE.
The auction post ECB and CPI was characterised as emotional and sellers were forced lower ( Mays HVNHigh volume node, or peak. An area that has been well traded... More 3900) to find buyers. The spike and the gaps More are an excellent example of the Price actionPrice action More that can emanate from a long period of balance into a big event or two.
I will be observing the Friday lows 3898/3900 for a continuation to test the HTF (Higher time frame target) and yearly lows 3808. The Sunday open will be particularly interesting to see if BTFD traders are still interested into an increasingly hawkish FOMC and BOE next week. Should the lows break, I will be looking for a continuation down to 3876, 3854, 3832, 3809
Buyers will want to end the OTFDOne time frame down. More onOvernight Session More a daily and will need to get over a few hurdles first at 3944 the spike base from Friday’s auction and 3959.5. Then they have the task of filling in the gap More first to 4016 and then 4067 with a pitstop at 4046 along the way.
OTFDOne time frame down. More DAILY & WEEKLY, STRONG IMBALANCE | MONTHLY BALANCE
MONITORING 3898 (CONTINUATION) and 3944 (START REPAIR)
POOR STRUCTURE LEFT BEHIND 3944-4067
UPDATE:
