Weeks Review into W/C 14th November 2022-Post CPI

Weeks Summary

After a lower-than-expected rise in consumer inflation spurred hope the Fed may scale down its monetary tightening effort, U.S. markets rose onOvernight Session More Friday to cap off a solid week for stocks. The S&P 500 increased by almost 6%, the Nasdaq by more than 8%, and the Dow increased by 4.2% for the week. The excitement was heightened by loosening COVID-19 regulations in China, which boosted oil futures and the stock prices of fossil fuel businesses in anticipation of rising demand. However, once FTX filed bankruptcy and the prices of the majority of significant currencies dropped, the week only grew worse for the cryptocurrency markets.

The U.S. Census Bureau will disclose retail sales information for the month of October onOvernight Session More Wednesday, giving important new information onOvernight Session More consumer spending as we approach the holiday shopping season. Along with the NAHB’s Housing Market Index, new housing market statistics including October housing starts, building permits, and existing home sales will also be made public. With industrial production figures for October and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for November, we can anticipate updates from the American manufacturing sector.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

• Next week will be one of the busiest of the corporate earnings season. Dozens of prominent companies including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, United Airlines, American Airlines, Tesla, Procter & Gamble, AT&T, Verizon, and American Express are scheduled to report.
• The latest updates onOvernight Session More the housing market will become available, including September housing starts, building permits, and existing home sales.
• OnOvernight Session More Monday, China will release its third-quarter GDP figures, providing a key update onOvernight Session More the world’s second-largest economy.
• OnOvernight Session More Wednesday, the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics will release inflation figures for the month of September.

• Some of the nation’s largest retailers report next week, including Walmart, Target, Macy’s, Home Depot, and Lowe’s.
• OnOvernight Session More Wednesday, the U.S. Census Bureau will report retail sales data for October.
• October housing starts, building permits, and existing home sales will be released, along with the NAHB’s Housing Market Index.

A Busy Earnings Week

Earnings season will begin one of its busiest weeks onOvernight Session More Monday. Financial sector earnings will come from Bank of America, BNY Mellon, and Charles Schwab onOvernight Session More Monday, followed by Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and others later in the week. Johnson & Johnson, Lockheed Martin, and Netflix will report onOvernight Session More Tuesday, followed by Tesla and Procter & Gamble onOvernight Session More Wednesday. AT&T will report onOvernight Session More Thursday, while Verizon and American Express will follow onOvernight Session More Friday.

Third-quarter earnings could prove to be a mixed bag for the corporate sector at large, as a rising dollar and a general economic slowdown impact profitability. Earnings growth for S&P 500 companies is expected to average just 2.4%, which would mark the weakest quarter since an average 5.7% net loss in the third quarter of 2020. Among S&P 500 companies, 65 have reported negative earnings guidance while just 41 have issued positive guidance according to research by FactSet.1

Events Calendar:

Tuesday, November 15

Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), BHP Group (BHP), Sea Limited (SE), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Aramark (ARMK), Legend Biotech (LEGN), Tencent (TME), and Krispy Kreme (DNUT) report earnings
Producer Price Index (PPI) (Oct)
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov)

Wednesday, November 16

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Cisco Systems (CSCO), Lowe’s Companies (LOW), TJX Companies (TJX), Target (TGT), Copart Inc. (CPRT), Grab Holdings Ltd. (GRAB), Bath & Body Works (BBWI), and Victoria’s Secret (VSCO) report earnings
Retail Sales (Oct)
Retail Inventories (Sep)
Industrial Production (Oct)
Business Inventories (Sep)
NAHB Housing Market Index (Nov)

Thursday, November 17

Alibaba (BABA), Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT), Palo Alto Networks (PANW), NetEase Inc. (NTES), Ross Stores (ROST), Keysight Technologies (KEYS), BJ’s Wholesale Club (BJ), Williams Sonoma (WSM), Macy’s (M), Gap More Inc. (GAP More), and Kohl’s Corp. (KSS) report earnings
Housing Starts (Oct)
Building Permits (Oct)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov)

Friday, November 18

JD.com (JD), Atkore Inc. (ATK), Foot Locker (FL), and Buckle Inc. (BKE) report earnings
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (Oct)
Existing Home Sales (Oct)

Review week’s RTHRegular trading hours. The official opening and closing time... More before I look at the profiles. Can you see where price actionPrice action More and reversals can you identify where the price becomes stuck–look at the overlapping profiles does this help? Look at last week’s references Look at the shape of the daily profiles.

Weeks Price ActionPrice action More Review

Why look at the Weekly and Monthly?

Using the composite
In addition to monitoring the previous day's Market prof... More profiles gives me a lot of clarity in understanding the market. Understanding the story and the basic mechanics of what is going onOvernight Session More simplifies almost every other aspect of my trading, especially timing.

By identifying areas of balance/ acceptance in the auction I have a natural edge. I can identify value and the pivots of change. In balance I look to fade the extremes, when activity leaves an area of acceptance, I monitor for strength and conviction of the move. For this, I use volume and value as a guide. As a general rule, if a move is genuine, volume and value will move in away from prior acceptance to a new area.