Weeks Review into W/C 4th July 2022
Weeks Review
The stock market in the United States rallied onOvernight Session More Friday as it entered the long holiday weekend, but it still fell for the week after finishing the worst first half of the year in decades, due to concerns about persistently high inflation, expectations for more aggressive central bank tightening, and recession risks. The Dow fell 1.3 percent last week, the S&P 500 fell 2.2 percent, and the Nasdaq fell 4.3 percent. The S&P 500 had its worst first half of the year since 1970, falling 21%, while the Nasdaq had its worst first half ever, falling nearly 30%. The major benchmarks also experienced significant quarterly and monthly declines. The S&P 500 fell 8.4 percent in June, while the Dow and Nasdaq fell 6.7 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively.
Treasurys rallied sharply this week, with the 10-year US Treasury note yield falling below 2.9 percent onOvernight Session More Friday as Month End effects and a flight to safety from declining growth expectations. Meanwhile, oil prices rose after OPEC and its allies agreed not to increase production above previously agreed-upon levels, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rising to slightly more than $108 per barrel.
Check out the articles I recently wrote about trading into the holidays and what to look out for. As a bonus, I have added my article onOvernight Session More how I trade events, specifically NFP. Developing this side of your game is a real edge!
4th July Holiday leading into payrolls.
The labour market will be in the spotlight next week, with the release of the Labor Department’s June nonfarm payrolls report onOvernight Session More Friday. Other labour market reports, such as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and ADP’s National Employment Report, which tracks private-sector payroll growth, will provide additional information about the labour market. OnOvernight Session More Tuesday, international PMI surveys tracking business sentiment in the United Kingdom and the eurozone will be released. The minutes of the FOMC’s most recent policy meeting, held in mid-June, will be available onOvernight Session More Wednesday. It will be a quiet week for corporate earnings before the second-quarter earnings season kicks off in mid-July.
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- OnOvernight Session More Tuesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for May.
- International PMI surveys tracking business sentiment throughout the U.K. and eurozone will also be available onOvernight Session More Tuesday.
- Payroll provider Automatic Data Processing (ADP) will release its June National Employment Report onOvernight Session More Thursday.
- The Labor Department’s June nonfarm payrolls report will follow onOvernight Session More Friday.
Events Calendar:
Events Calendar:
Monday, July 4
- U.S. Market Holiday (Independence Day)
Tuesday, July 5
- Factory Orders (May)
- Eurozone S&P Global Composite
In addition to monitoring the previous day's Market prof... More PMI (June) - U.K. S&P Global Composite
In addition to monitoring the previous day's Market prof... More PMI (June)
Wednesday, July 6
- S&P Global Composite
In addition to monitoring the previous day's Market prof... More PMI (June) - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (June)
- JOLTS Job Openings, Quits, Separations (May)
- FOMC Meeting Minutes (June Policy Meeting)
Thursday, July 7
- Levi Strauss (LEVI) reports earnings
- ADP Private Payrolls Report (June)
- Trade Balance; Export and Import Growth (May)
Friday, July 8
- Nonfarm Payrolls Report (June)
- China Inflation Rate (June)
Weekend Reading:
Awareness as an Edge
As a macro-driven trader, I try to keep abreast of other themes that can drive risk repricing events. Ultimately just having a broad understanding of risk triggers is one of the greatest edges. Oil, yields, politics and other triggers are an important part of my daily/weekly prep. I have included some general pieces I will be looking through onOvernight Session More the weekend. I also include a link to a video I released onOvernight Session More how executed my trades onOvernight Session More a comment regarding a Russian withdrawal from Snake Island.
OIl outlook by Danske
https://research.danskebank.com/research/#/Research/article/73a7a88c-bd92-4e20-a27d-ac236b27ecba/EN
Some interesting research from me from the week. BTW I don’t care too much for stats like these but they are interesting. I only trade the auction.
Weekly Review
Why look at the Weekly and Monthly?
Using the composite
In addition to monitoring the previous day's Market prof... More profiles gives me a lot of clarity in understanding the market. Understanding the story and the basic mechanics of what is going onOvernight Session More simplifies almost every other aspect of my trading, especially timing.
By identifying areas of balance/ acceptance in the auction I have a natural edge. I can identify value and the pivots of change. In balance I look to fade the extremes, when activity leaves an area of acceptance, I monitor for strength and conviction of the move. For this, I use volume and value as a guide. As a general rule, if a move is genuine, volume and value will move in away from prior acceptance to a new area.
Monthly Profiles
Weekly Profiles Look a bit messy and confusing, being month end I have focused onOvernight Session More the prior months’ profiles to understand and identify key areas to trade.
Monthly Multi Distribution,
H 4178 L 3639 VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 3774 & 4116 MID 3906 | 3 MONTH VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 4116
3 Month Profile References
All images can be found on my Twitter feed in high resolution. Please let me know if you have issues much appreciated.
UPDATE:
