Weeks Review| Prep W/C 23rd  Jan 2023

Weeks Review| Prep W/C 23rd Jan 2023

January 22, 2023 0 By The Balanced Trader

Last Weeks Summary

Weeks Summary

Yen pairs were in the spotlight as the BoJ startled some market participants by maintaining the status quo in monetary policy. Japan’s CPI grew to 4% YoY in the meantime. Lagarde took the opportunity to affirm the ECB’s commitment to raising rates to fight inflation along with other ECB members including Knot who stated that multiple 50bp hikes are necessary.

The equity markets in the US remained little changed but sent investors guessing with large swings higher and lower following PPI releases that pointed to slowing price rises in the face of FED speaker headwinds that continue to hawkishly talk rate cut expectations away. OPEX flows were in focus at the end of the week with ES PA pinned between the 200 and 100dma.

CPI THIS WEEK WAS WEAK

This is going to be a fun week, with PMI and some big-hitting earnings upcoming.

Events Calendar:

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Earnings season enters one of its busiest weeks, with earnings from Microsoft, Johnson & Johnson, Tesla, AT&T, Verizon, Boeing, IBM, Visa, and Mastercard, among others.
  • S&P Global will release its Composite PMI for January on Tuesday, gauging business activity across the U.S.
  • On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will issue the advance estimate for the fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).
  • The BEA will also release its Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for December on Friday, providing the latest update on inflation.
  • The latest updates on the housing market will include new and pending home sales for December.

Events Calendar: GMT

Notable Tweets

Weekly Review

Review week’s RTH before I look at the profiles. Can you see where price action and reversals can you identify where the price becomes stuck–look at the overlapping profiles. Does this help? Look at last week’s references. Look at the shape of the daily profiles.

Weeks Price Action Review

Weeks review

Why look at the Weekly and Monthly?

Using the composite profiles gives me a lot of clarity in understanding the market. Understanding the story and the basic mechanics of what is going on simplifies almost every other aspect of my trading, especially timing.

I have a natural edge by identifying areas of balance/ acceptance in the auction. I can identify value and the pivots of change. In balance, I look to fade the extremes. When activity leaves an area of acceptance, I monitor for strength and conviction of the move. For this, I use volume and value as a guide. As a general rule, if a move is genuine, volume and value will move in away from prior acceptance to a new area.

Sellers trapped above 100DMA and buyers above the 200DMA

WEEKLY

5-Year Weekly, Monthly Yearly Returns and What happened last year?

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