
Weeks Review| Prep W/C 3Oth Jan 2023

Last Weeks Summary
Weeks Summary
Despite lukewarm earnings, the start to 2023 has been positive for US equity investors. There was not much else to report back with the FED in lockdown. Hopes for a more dovish Fed amid the recent softening of inflation pressures and weak business survey data have fueled positive risk sentiment in the market to a large extent. The tone of the upcoming FOMC meeting and post-meeting press conference will greatly impact whether this optimism can be sustained. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point increase, but what happens next is more important. Markets are pricing in interest rate cuts in late 2023, but the Fed has sought to dismiss these hopes.
This week’s other important events include eagerly anticipated central bank meetings in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone, as well as some of the most important monthly economic data releases. These include US labour market and eurozone inflation data, as well as global manufacturing and services PMIs, all of which will aid in assessing global growth and inflation conditions at the start of 2023. This week also includes updates on Germany’s Q4 GDP and inflation figures from Germany.

Events Calendar:
KEY TAKEAWAYS
- Earnings season continues with reports from big tech companies, including Apple, Amazon, Google parent Alphabet, and Meta Platforms.
- Other prominent companies reporting next week include ExxonMobil, Pfizer, UPS, McDonald’s, Caterpillar, Starbucks, and automakers Ford and General Motors, among many others.
- The latest updates onOvernight Session More the U.S. labour market will become available, with the JOLTS report for December, ADP’s National Employment Report tracking private sector payrolls, and the nonfarm payrolls report for January.
- Fed policymakers will gather for the first FOMC meeting of 2023, with the U.S. central bank widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points.
- Overseas, European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) officials will also meet to discuss monetary policy and raise interest rates.
- We’ll get the latest updates onOvernight Session More home prices with the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for November, along with the latest PMI figures tracking U.S. manufacturing and services activity.

Events Calendar: CET

Notable Tweets
Weekly Review
Review week’s RTHRegular trading hours. The official opening and closing time... More before I look at the profiles. Can you see where price actionPrice action More and reversals can you identify where the price becomes stuck–look at the overlapping profiles. Does this help? Look at last week’s references. Look at the shape of the daily profiles.
Weeks Price ActionPrice action More Review

Why look at the Weekly and Monthly?
Using the composite
In addition to monitoring the previous day's Market prof... More profiles gives me a lot of clarity in understanding the market. Understanding the story and the basic mechanics of what is going onOvernight Session More simplifies almost every other aspect of my trading, especially timing.
I have a natural edge by identifying areas of balance/ acceptance in the auction. I can identify value and the pivots of change. In balance, I look to fade the extremes. When activity leaves an area of acceptance, I monitor for strength and conviction of the move. For this, I use volume and value as a guide. As a general rule, if a move is genuine, volume and value will move in away from prior acceptance to a new area.

Monthly profiles are still inside balance—big week this week with multiple CB meetings. Observe the extremes for strength and breakout continuation. Else could be a quick return to MID, at least if not test 2023 lows. The FED reaction will be important.

Weekly OTF is higher. Can this be continued for another week? Friday saw some aggressive buying, only to then aggressively PB into the close. I will want to make sure buyers are still lurking around, given the recent strength in all the CB meetings. Areas that I will pay the most attention to will be Friday’s settle and lows, where we saw some strong absorption onOvernight Session More the open—failing that, the weekly VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More at 4032. I suspect there to be a few stops below 4027 (Thur’s poor lows). My LIS is the 4013 mVPOC 4006 and singles left over from last Wednesday’s rally. A hold below the monthly vpocThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More area would see us retest the monthly balance VAlows 3900 area where we have the 100dma.
IF buyers can regain, last week’s settlement sets us up for a test of the NVPOCThe NVPOC or Naked POC is the same as a POC or VPOC but it h... More @4190. This will probably rest onOvernight Session More the outcome of the CM meetings, and some adjustments may be necessary before then.

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