Debriefing Monday 13th June and Today’s Journal

• ECB’s Knot: Real probability ECB rates to rise further in Oct, Dec.
• ECB’s Knot: ECB rates must rise 0.25 pts in Sept if conditions are the same.
• Money markets price 125bps of BoE hikes by September.
• ZEW: The economy is still exposed to numerous risks such as effects of sanctions against Russia.
• Eurozone ZEW Survey Expectations Actual -28 (Forecast -, Previous 29.5)

Today’s Data (Tuesdays)

Yesterday’s Market Profile and Price Action Debrief (Monday)

Market profile, debriefing Monday 13^th June

An ONOvernight Session More open gap More 3878.5 from the previous low/close saw no attempt by buyers to lift from the Sunday re-open. The auction moved to slice through all major references until finding a temporary bottom at the century figure 3800. The ONOvernight Session More auction continued onOvernight Session More a steady path, trending lower into the RTH( Regular Trading Hours) and opening OAOR just below 3798. A full 100 points lower from the prior close 3798.25 AND below the year’s low 3809-a key reference. With OnOvernight Session More inventory 100% short, participants waited to see if there would be a reaction from buyers onOvernight Session More the Open. 

Much like Friday open, the open reversal would be weak and failed even to acknowledge the upper distribution of the ONOvernight Session More lower node 3823. An open swing high to 3818 and then another slightly higher attempt to 3819.5 came from the open swing low 3792, giving the shorts a double top to play for a continuation lower.

 The auction ground lower into the opening low in choppy fashion until we broke the opening lows. Prior areas of activity and expected support failed to slow the auction until it found a base at the large HVNHigh volume node, or peak. An area that has been well traded... More onOvernight Session More the composite
In addition to monitoring the previous day's Market prof... More chart 3750. This was a well-defined HTF target. 

Buyers gained some composure to trade back through the IB LOWThe lowest value that is printed from the opening 1 hour of ... More 3767 and back up through the range, but the auction up fell just short of the day’s high-key clue. 

Buyers and sellers continued to trade blows in the middle of the day’s range until (L Period) a WSJ story broke, and this triggered another liquidation through the lows to find buyers at 3735.25 the composite
In addition to monitoring the previous day's Market prof... More LVNLow volume node, or a trough in volume or TPO chart. More. A weak PB into the close 3753.5, leaving a clear buying tail. 

Buyers will want to protect this spike which is a crucial reference for tomorrow. 

Forgive me for not providing levels at this point Going to see what happens ONOvernight Session More. 

Normal Variation Day, Liquidation Continuation, OTFDOne time frame down. More daily, weekly and monthly 

H: 3819.5 L: 3735.25 VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 3779.00 VWAPThe VWAP or Volume-Weighted-Average-Price is a moving averag... More 3777.25 SETTLE: 3753.25

MONITORING 3750 (Spike base) and 3779(Yesterday VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More)

Yesterday’s Price Action Review

MONDAYS CORRELATIONS

ON Update

Post-Monday Settlement buyers stepped up and auctioned higher to test yesterday’s VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 3779 area. A shallow PB followed, before holding above 3779, then impulsing higher to 3796, then grinding up to 3807( 2 points below the prior monthly high).

The EU futures open saw sellers retake control of the auction ( perhaps aided by the weaker ZEW survey), where we have continued to grind back down following a retest above the century figure. Auction is now testing back down, looking for buyers.

Currently, 3763 is a critical prior swing low following the initial PB from the VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More.

6 am CT So far we are inside yesterday’s range where buyers have been found inside yesterday’s MP spike base 3750 and sellers protecting the prior month’s low 3809. High Volume established post settlement at the base of today’s profile so I will keep my eye onOvernight Session More those lows.

Double Distribution, LVNLow volume node, or a trough in volume or TPO chart. More 3780 area (yesterday POCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More)

H: 3807.5 L: 3744.5 VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 3751.5 PRIOR SETTLE: 3753.25

One essential tip is to note where the aggressive ONOvernight Session More PAPrice action More has taken place and observe these areas.

Live Journal Tuesday 14Th

0730 CT Initial reaction to PPI muted

Quote Of the Day

 “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”  -Keynes

Trade Well And Prosper.

BT