Debriefing 8th June  and Today’s Journal

Debriefing 8th June and Today’s Journal

Weekly Analysis

Yesterday’s Debrief

Todays Link

Live on YouTube

Images can be found on Twitter

Need to know market risk @ FinancialJuice.com

  • Kremlin: No agreement reached with Turkey on Ukrainian grain, work continues.
  • IAEA Director-General Grossi will hold a news conference on Iran at 1:15 PM (11:15 GMT).
  • Traders add to BoE bets, put 50 BPS hike in play by September.

https://financialjuice.com/News/6699363/Europe-Market-Wrap.aspx

Today’s Data

ECB MAIN EVENT BEWARE

source: investing.com

Yesterday’s Market Profile and Price Action Debrief

market profile

Market profile, debriefing Monday 8th June

ON Balanced Profile was located above yesterday’s VPOC but we opened with a large gap lower from the prior close at 4158.75. What was noticeable was the location of the ON Low was a single tick above prior VPOC and to me that indicates a lack of resolve by sellers-a clue!

ON inventory was short and given their lack of ON conviction by sellers we can be looking for an early adjustment on the open. PM me and ask me why I was expecting this🙂

Into the open and a lack of follow-through to the downside after a breach of the ON lows (4133) by 5 points. Buyers took turn to respond to then close the gap to the pclose @ 4158.75 briefly breaking above by a singular point to create the day’s highs at 4160.

The auction then spent a lot of time making no ground to the upside. One clue was PA at the prior high, notably, the buying turned off. This happened a couple of times and is worth looking at yesterday’s live journal.

Top TIP: To the untrained Market profiler the non-excess highs that were created looks like clear buying pressure and an opportunity for stops to run, but when we have a slow-paced auction and extreme balance ( see yesterday’s tweet) this is actually a sign of buying weakness. *Short was taken at the time at 56.75

The IB was still intact 3 hours into the auction, but buyers were losing the battle and sellers eventually took full control of the auction breaking the IB low to test the small ledges created on yesterday’s auctions 4125 & 4115. Sellers then pushed down to cover yesterday’s singles marker @4105 before being pushed above the all-important pwkSettle (4108). Close 4114.25

TOP TIP: Check out my balance trading rules and see why I held my trade through the IB low to my primary targets 4125, and 4115 4108. Click here

Also, checkout spike rules as we failed to take out yesterday’s highs!

Double Distribution, Liquidation, 8 Day Balance, Inside Day

H 4160 L 4105 VPOC 4115 VWAP 4131 SETTLE: 4114.25

Realistic Targets Given Current ATR

UPSIDE: 4168 | 4183 | 4200 | 4220 | 4250| 4274 | 4303

DOWNSIDE: 4134| 4120| 4107 | 4098 |4080 |4962| 4050| 4032| 4015 |4000|3987

Yesterday’s Price Action Review

Footprint access notes from yesterday’s entry @56.75

ON Update

Originally tweeted by The Balanced Trader (@Trading_Balance) on June 8, 2022.

Opening Bell

OK, GUYS ALL EYES ON THE ECB THIS IS A BIG THING EVEN OUTSIDE THE EURO COMPLEX. I WILL BE IN FULL CONCENTRATION MODE. Prep done, mental prep done, technical prep done, BE ready!

8 am CT I am wondering if today is the day we break out of ES, inflation out of control is the narrative adding slower growth and rising rates. Watch the lows in ES we are already below last week’s settle. Watching for a test into 4108 for short on open. This was discussed on today’s Stream. Big ON volume coming in into the open. ECB is setting the tone. FESX and bonds through the floor into the open. BTPS down 340 ticks!

Looking for a weak PB into the 4108/4115 area for SHORTS

EQUITY RISK OFF!

Concentrating in EU land so won’t be present into the open. Will try and update.

15.22 Delayed update***

Took a few early losers shorting off the open below yesterday’s spike base 97 and looking for a hold below 4100 and then tried again at 4108. Then I took a decent trade at my second scheduled area and covered my losses and then some.

  • SHORT 4117 and 4114 but now flat scaled out 4104 and 94 but flat residual PB through 4100 scaled out saved me!
  • 2-way price actions give me less conviction about my trade idea. And big clues and what can we take from this open was that there was a clear reaction from shorts and sellers way price action not the best sign for a bigger trend move so I will wait for more info.
  • PB to the prior week settle to just above 4111 was nasty for anyone short.
  • This market is not yet ready for the move I have in mind and this was maybe too obvious.

STAY READY stay alert. This will happen in the meantime Balance rules apply.

I am calling it a day ECB gave us some low hanging fruit in bonds and later equities into the open, POST open just a chop fest! Stay away unless you love to scalp.

TOP TIP: Just take your stops on the chin another trade will come along, I took multiple (3) stops getting one winner but my winner today soaked up all the losses and then some. I stayed calm and traded the next opportunity as planned. Staying focused and resolute in my process.

Trade well and Prosper 🙂

OK, I CAME BACK well I never left the desk actually just got tired of talking on youtube.

1500 CT The 8-day balance was finally broken and it happened in the least obvious way. My trade plan from the open was clear but I took multiple stops before the real opportunity came. Well after everyone had given up.

The price action of the open was choppy. See the last tweet for an even better entry into this trade which I missed. Ultimately the thinking behind the final attempt was the failure of the market to exit from the IB HIGH a key reference point.

The sellers were patient as they had been the whole week. Soaking up buyers. The outcome of my trade is an outlier this was a massive trade but I never knew that from the start all I knew was I had a fixed stop on onside and unlimited upside.

All I had to do was let it play out! Chin up and keep studying your mistakes if you missed this one so you can catch the next one. Bragging about winners gets you nowhere and does not improve your process.

If you want to see me take multiple losses only to recover them with full live commentary and in today’s live youtube video. Please like and subscribe it feels like I m talking to myself on YouTube:)

#ES_F #spy #trading #DayTrading #improvement #journalthejourney #journal #besttradeever

Originally tweeted by The Balanced Trader (@Trading_Balance) on June 9, 2022.

Quote Of the Day

“The hard work in trading comes in the preparation.”–No Idea

Trade Well And Prosper.

BT