Weeks Review into W/C 6th June 2022
Week Ahead Highlights: ECB and US CPI Out this Week
This week features the much-awaited ECB meeting (Thursday) and important US CPI inflation figures (Friday). Besides that, we will follow the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence survey (Friday) and policy meetings in Australia (Monday), Poland (Tuesday), and Russia (Friday). We will also pay close attention to Chinese PMI figures (Monday), which are poised to show a rebound from the reopening after the Covid lockdowns.
In the US, CPI inflation figures will display stubbornly high prices. Headline inflation is likely to stay flat printing at 8.3% y/y (consensus: 8.2%), while core inflation will fall towards 6.1% y/y (consensus: 5.9%) with a slight risk to the downside.
Events Calendar:
Monday, June 6
- HealthEquity (HQY) reports earnings
Tuesday, June 7
- Trip.com (TCOM) and The J.M. Smucker Company (SJM) report earnings
- U.S. Export and Import Growth (April)
- Japan GDP Growth Rate – Final Reading (Q1 2022)
- S&P Global U.K. Services PMI – Final Reading (May)
Wednesday, June 8
- Campbell Soup Company (CPB), and Five Below (FIVE) report earnings
- Euro Area GDP Growth Rate – Final Estimate (Q1 2022)
Thursday, June 9
- DocuSign (DOCU) reports earnings
- ECB Interest Rate Decision
- China Inflation Rate (May)
Friday, June 10
- U.S. CPI Inflation Rate (May)
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Preliminary Reading (June)
Weekend Reading:
Into the ECB: Important preview from Danske as we get ready for lift-off.
Learn about the Fed’s Beige Book.
A qualitative reflection of economic conditions into the next rate meeting.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202206.htm
Does the Beige Book Reflect U.S. Employment and Inflation Trends? | St. Louis Fed (stlouisfed.org)
Finally
Where is the Gamma Flip: Tier 1 Alpha
Profile Review
All images can be found on my Twitter feed in high resolution.
Month/ First Week Review| WE 3rd May 2022| NFP FRIDAY
The auction was contained in the HVN from the prior month. Having rallied into the month-end and then finding a temporary Hi @4202 in the Holiday session, sellers then took control of the auction to attempt and fail to break through the prior week’s Open gap More at 4173-4179. For the auction to then reverse back to a lower high into the NFP data into Friday. Longs liquidated into NFP eventually gave little or no need for a change in economic consensus. The auction closed in balance @4108.75 just below the WVPOC @4117. The first week of the month closed near the weekly RTHRegular trading hours. The official opening and closing time... More pivot and VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 4117.
Buyers will want to maintain the auction above this week’s session lows and Sellers will be looking to end the weekly OTFU below 4171.
Weekly
A look at the daily rotations and pivots: A very balanced week
1. Holiday session, bullish momentum carries over into thin liquidity. Buyers eventually
succumb to passive sellers and week longs exit positions. The auction rotates back lower.
2. Sellers fill the open gap More left from the 26-27th May but passive buyers exhaust shorts and
they retreat back to the prior days’ VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More.
3. Early attempt to break below the prior gap More but passive buyers absorb liquidity at the lows
frustrating shorts, and they cover. Short covering trend into Friday NFP.
4. Short covering rally lacks strength into NFP and trends lower ( back to Weekly Mid and
VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More) into NFP. Whipsaw NFP before prior direction resumes.
A very balanced week as auction participants take a breather and some time to digest new
information before the next move. Trading is taking place mostly inside last month’s HVNHigh volume node, or peak. An area that has been well traded... More with a
slight lean back towards last month’s VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More which is lower at 4015.
Debriefing NFP 3rd June 2022
B Distribution, Long liquidation Repair of Thursday’s Poor Auction INSIDE DAY
H 4012 L 4096.75 VPOCThe POC or Point-of-control is the price where the most amou... More 4107 VWAPThe VWAP or Volume-Weighted-Average-Price is a moving averag... More 4116 CLOSE 4109
REALISTIC TARGETS BASED ONOvernight Session More EXPECTED DAILY RANGE EXTREMES
UPSIDE: 4142| 4157|4163|4183|4200|4220 |4250|4274|4303
DOWNSIDE: 4124| 4107| 4098 |4080 |4962| 4050| 4032| 4015 |4000|3987
