Debriefing NFP Friday 3rd June 2022

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  • India is in talks to increase Russian oil imports from Rosneft.
  • Barclays: Now expect ECB to hike in 25 basis-points increments at each meeting from July to December 2022, and once more in Q1 2023.
  • Bank of America now expects 150 basis-points of ECB rate hikes this year, with 50 basis-points moves in July and September.
  • Money Markets bet on a half-point BoE rate hike by December.
  • On Monday, Biden will use executive action to bridge a solar panel supply gap caused by a Commerce Department tariff investigation – According to sources familiar with the matter.
  • Saudis Increase prices for crude. Oil is bid
  • The UK and a no-confidence vote on BJs premiership later today is a possibility.

Look at how I trade NFP

Today’s Data

NO DATA TO NOTE

EU HOLIDAY, Happy Whit Monday: Whit Monday is a Christian holiday celebrating the descent of the Holy Ghost. Who ya gonna call?

Yesterday’s Market Profile and Price Action Debrief

NFP Debrief
NFP DATA

Before the RTH opened, longs had already begun a long liquidation move into the NFP. This followed a Thursday breakout rally from Wednesday’s lower distribution balance; it felt like shorts were frustrated after failing to break below the prior gap twice (on Wednesday and Thursday).

NFP was barely an event, and given the lack of new information and the setup’s location in the middle of weekly balance, the auction simply continued doing what it was doing, which was re-auctioning Thursday’s poor structural profile.

Longs had little respite in the open. Opening at the ON lows of 4126, but still within the previous day’s poorly auctioned range, and interestingly, below Wednesday’s lower distribution extreme. The question was whether buyers would try to close the large opening gap left by the previous day’s close at 4174.

The prospect of a gap close was limited to a determined pulse to the post-NFP swing high of 42, but the auction quickly reversed, barely remaining above the century figure with a burst to the daily low of 4096.

B Distribution, Long liquidation, Repair of Thursday’s Poor Auction, INSIDE DAY, 5 Day Balance

H 4012 L 4096.75 VPOC 4107 VWAP 4116 CLOSE 4109

Realistic Targets Given Current ATR

UPSIDE: 4142| 4157|4163|4183|4200|4220 |4250|4274|4303

DOWNSIDE: 4124| 4107| 4098 |4080 |4962| 4050| 4032| 4015 |4000|3987

Yesterday’s Price Action Review

NFP Footprint Chart

You need to be well prepared to trade 15-40 point rotations within a very tight time frame. Examine the footprint diagram above. In comparison to other events, Friday’s NFP was relatively quiet. If you read my article on how to trade NFP, you’ll get a good idea of why it was so quiet. Furthermore, in the data, the overall trading location is in the middle of the weekly balance.

ON Update

10 am BST Sunday’s open retests Friday’s closing range low and creates the very definition of a non-excess low @4104.5. This non-excess loss is a great clue and we often see passive orders being filled and absorbing liquidity. Opposing shorts eventually get squeezed and the auction reverses to test the other side of the balance. What’s notable is the location of this support just below Thrurdasy Lower distribution upper extreme and 1 point above Friday NFP VPOC. This ON is to be closely watched.

Also, notice the PA change as ES buyers find sellers in the belly of the composite profile which coincides with last week’s VVAH @53. A hold above this area will. * Currently short a small position in this area. I am trading the outer edge of balance!

Last Weeks VA 4098-53 VPOC @4130

Opening Bell

LIVE Journal

Good Morning everyone. Please read the ON section for the latest updates.

10:30 Small trade taken @ PWKVVAH @54 scaled out of half @4149.5. Risk-free trade back to mid. See the chart immediately above. or check out the high res image on Twitter.

13:20 This trade is dragging, twice testing the prior stalk zone at 4145 and bouncing the good news is I am still in the trade. We are creating a little area of balance up here and we should get a good uncoiling of positioning into the open either way. S4154. Todays ON move was another breakout trend in a similar style to Thursday’s RTH auction only sellers have come in at a lower point. PA is compressing. INSIDE DAY rules.

14.35 Small error on small size off the open and miss entered my trade. Take it on the chin and accept mistakes will happen.

Open type Open Auction out of Range, check out what this means and why it matters.

15:00 Bias is now long as we break out the HVN on the ON profile. Buyers successfully defended the Open gap just below the prior high at the ON singles break @39. Given the passive buying on Sunday reopen and the breakout of NFP closing balance. Auction has upward potential.

15:25 A missed opportunity to take a structured long at 58 on the PB into the LVN area.

16.00 long PB into zipper lows for a beak above the IB high. Stopped out pretty quickly. This is surprising given PA so far but it looks like long succumbed very easily. Trading all the way back through the opening price where I took a second long that also failed. All of a sudden a sleepy Monday is full of life. Looking short to close the gap to the prior close 4108.

Moves may be treasury driven as yields break above 3-week highs.

16:15 I need to be careful 2 full stops. The mistake I made was looking for the long continuation into weak buying at the upper range of last week’s range. Always be aware of the HTF context. I need to accept I made a poor decision and a worse one re-entering the trade after 5 minutes. I should of instead been asking the question why is this moving down so fast.

The original long idea, that failed

19:00 Short into VWAP, seeing volume increasing as we approach and this area coincides with the IB LOW and a nice LVN. If you need some tips on how to trade into VWAP here you go.

Short into VWAP

Exited the trade 31 my scale and 21s target into prior chop zone.

Ok, that’s all folks.

Have a great evening, BT.

Quote Of the Day

What is the role of the Market? Continuous discovery of fairest price.
In so doing, markets transfer wealth from undisciplined, impatient participants that violate proven risk management and investment strategies to disciplined, patient-participants that strictly adhere to proven risk management and investment strategies. -ProfitTree @CT Although I have heard this one before.

Trade Well And Prosper.

BT