Weeks Review into W/C 10th October 2022-Post NFP Collapse

Weeks Review into W/C 10th October 2022-Post NFP Collapse

October 9, 2022 0 By The Balanced Trader

Last Weeks Summary

Weeks Summary

US equity markets fell on Friday after a stronger-than-expected jobs report raised the prospect of more aggressive Fed tightening, but ended the week higher after the strongest two-day rally since 2020 on Monday and Tuesday. The Dow gained 2% last week, the S&P 500 gained 1.5%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.75%. Treasury yields in the United States increased, with the 10-year Treasury note yield rising to 3.89%. Oil prices rose after OPEC+ announced that it would reduce oil production by up to two million barrels per day to support prices, the largest supply cut since early 2020. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose more than 15% this week, the largest weekly gain since March, with the price closing Friday at $93 per barrel.

@BankofAmerica GR

ASSET WEEKS PA

Events Calendar:

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • Corporate earnings season begins with quarterly results from big banks and financial firms; JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup are among the companies scheduled to report
  • Other companies expected to report earnings include Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and UnitedHealth Group, among others
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release its CPI and PPI, tracking consumer and producer inflation, respectively, for the month of September
  • The U.S. Census Bureau will release September retail sales figures on Friday, indicating whether consumer spending held up last month
  • The University of Michigan will release the preliminary October reading of its Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) on Friday, providing a key measure of consumer confidence

Events Calendar:


Tuesday, October 11

Pinnacle Financial Partners (PNFP) reports earnings
NFIB Business Optimism Index (Sep)
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index (Oct)
Consumer Inflation Expectations (Sep)

Wednesday, October 12

PepsiCo (PEP), Infosys Ltd. (INFY), and Wipro Ltd. (WIT) report earnings
Producer Price Index (PPI) Inflation (Sep)
FOMC Meeting Minutes (Sep. 20-21 Meeting)

Thursday, October 13

TSMC (TSM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), Progressive Corp. (PGR), Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA), Fastenal Co. (FAST), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)
Consumer Price Index (CPI) Inflation (Sep)

Friday, October 14

UnitedHealth Group (UNH), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Morgan Stanley (MS), Citigroup (C), PNC Financial Services (PNC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and First Republic Bank (FRC) report earnings
Retail Sales (Sep)
Import & Export Prices (Sep)
Business Inventories (Aug)
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Preliminary Reading (Oct)

Weekend Reading:

WTI

Following on from last week’s production cuts at first it seems the cuts would have little effect on current production runs as the group were already underproducing by some 3mbpd. A 2 Mbps cut was against existing quotas and the crude complete initial brushed off the event. Following on oil squeezed into Friday as the meaning behind these cuts became clear to markets. Jannet Yellen thinks OPEC is bad and so does the rest of the world.

£145 to fill up my car but that probably has more to do with Truss collapsing the £. Oh well

OILS TRAJECTORY IS UP BUT HEADING INTO RESISTANCE

https://www.ft.com/content/04229ecd-bc58-402b-97f2-a2ecc1a384c5

Weekly Review

Review week’s RTH before I look at the profiles. Can you see where price action and reversals can you identify where the price becomes stuck–look at the overlapping profiles does this help? Look at last week’s references Look at the shape of the daily profiles.

Last week’s profile was included. It helps if you can define references that are meaningful, these include key swing lows/highs from major events like NFP, weekly POC VAH VAL, MA/s 5/20/50 100 /200 VWAP OPEN LAST SETTLE HVN LVN GAPS

WEEKLY REVIEW

Weeks Price Action Review

Why look at the Weekly and Monthly?

Using the composite profiles gives me a lot of clarity in understanding the market. Understanding the story and the basic mechanics of what is going on simplifies almost every other aspect of my trading, especially timing.

By identifying areas of balance/ acceptance in the auction I have a natural edge. I can identify value and the pivots of change. In balance I look to fade the extremes, when activity leaves an area of acceptance, I monitor for strength and conviction of the move. For this, I use volume and value as a guide. As a general rule, if a move is genuine, volume and value will move in away from prior acceptance to a new area.

Monthly Profiles

Monthly Profiles- OTFD

MONTHLY AUCTION

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