Debriefing 9th June ECB MEETING  and Today’s Journal

Debriefing 9th June ECB MEETING and Today’s Journal

Weekly Analysis

Yesterday’s Debrief

Todays Link

Live on YouTube

Images can be found on Twitter

Need to know market risk @ FinancialJuice.com

  • UK Interest rate futures price in more Bank of England tightening, see bank rate at 3% by March 2023 MPC meeting.
  • ECB’s Holzmann: Estimates for neutral rate are near 1.5%.
  • ECB’s Holzmann: September rate will be at least 25bps but could be 50 or something in between.

Today’s Data

Yesterday’s Market Profile and Price Action Debrief

Market profile, debriefing Monday 9th June

ECB THURSDAY was the trigger for today’s move out of 8-day balance. This was not a given as sellers tried to play the short out of balance early off the open and failed following the ON liquidation move that followed the ECB meeting. Buyers then pushed the auction back to the 4120 composite POC but failed to breach. Sellers then took control to force prices below stops created by the 8 days of balance. (That’s a lot of stops).

A P profile distribution day formed after a determined effort by longs to hold on after the initial open drop which gave a messy early impression on Price action…. ( Stay vigilant is the top tip here). The key clue was the location of the sellers the VPOC of the multi-day profile composition 4120. This was where they soaked up buyers and then started the move to 79s where the floodgates were opened. 8 days of long and wrong flushed out in an instant.

OTFD on the week into CPI Friday tomorrow. Shorts will want to maintain the auction below spike base from the auction on Thursday 26/5 and targe 3990 lows from the same session. Given the extreme emotive move, some adjustment may happen so spike rules apply and we observe the extremes. Along the way, there are a few levels to observe marked out.

P Profile, Liquidation, 8 Day Balance BROKEN, Breakout Liquidation Day

H 4118.25 L 4014.75 VPOC 4090 VWAP 4079 SETTLE: 4115

Yesterday’s Price Action Review

Footprint access notes from yesterday’s short entry @4104 in yesterday’s journal. Footprints ROCK!

Candles

ON Update

AWAITING CPI!!!

ON Inventory looks balanced, the auction has to remain contained below the spike base from 26th May and traded slightly lower to 4006.

H 4030 L 4006 VPOC 4018 VWAP 4019 pSETTLE: 4115

If you managed to catch my stream today on youtube you will hear me say that we are keeping a close eye on yields and their reaction to the CPI data. The CPI data is not the FED favoured inflation metric but for participants, it’s the best proxy out there. The number was a blowout with a huge jump in inflation both monthly and yearly. the market was hoping for a slowing down of the post covid effects and the war in Ukraine.

07:30 MAJOR RELEASE

WATCH THE LIVE CPI RELEASE HERE

US Core CPI YoY Actual 6.0% (Forecast 5.9%, Previous 6.2%)

US CPI YoY Actual 8.6% (Forecast 8.3%, Previous 8.3%)

US Core CPI MoM Actual 0.6% (Forecast 0.5%, Previous 0.6%)

Correlations and market reactions

Post data we saw a huge liquidity gap and then a continuation lower where sellers are seeking buyers but buyers are waiting for a lower price. Treasury yields are the driver, global markets are worrying about the fed tightening into a slowing economy and the Michigan data that followed the CPI only builds this narrative.

The lack of buyers is a contrast to the 8 days of balance and this is a big change in the market regime. Trading these conditions is a skill and understanding PA and the higher time frame levels that have preceded is important to be able to execute safely.

Take the time to watch the video below, It’s a live chart recording of the CPI release. I have learnt to trade these events through participation and post-analysis. recording your ladders is a cool idea.

Tell me what you think. will be making more of these videos

For me at least CPI was an event too far I recognise that I am overly tired and need to rest, but I will maintain this journal non the less from the comfort of my garden.

TOP TIP: Review Trading Non-Farm Payrolls. I approach all data events in the same way.

WEEKEND, make sure you do your homework journal the period and balance and look at the breakout from yesterday and today’s continuation. Review and digest the week and ask yourself these questions.

  • What I did do well?
  • What can be improved?
  • My focus for tomorrow/next week will be?

I will be reviewing the ECB in-depth and today’s CPI but first I will rest.

Quote Of the Day

Trading knowledge is something that you achieve only by daily experience, hard work, and self-discipline. Originally tweeted by Pips Wind (@PipsWind) on June 9, 2022.

Trade Well And Prosper.

BT